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Politics·Primaries

AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner

Mark Lamb 90%

Travis Grantham 4.4%

Jay Feely 2.8%

Polymarket

$44,355 Vol.

Mark Lamb 90%

Travis Grantham 4.4%

Jay Feely 2.8%

Polymarket

$44,355 Vol.

Mark Lamb

$1,848 Vol.

90%

Travis Grantham

$1,012 Vol.

4%

Jay Feely

$41,495 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, 2026, driven by his commanding leads in multiple polls—including a December 2025 survey showing him at 63.5% among likely GOP primary voters—and high-profile endorsements from President Trump in November 2025 and Club for Growth PAC. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift sentiment, solidifying Lamb's frontrunner status in this open seat race to replace Rep. Andy Biggs, who is pursuing the governorship. State Rep. Travis Grantham trails at 3.4% and former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 2.8%, reflecting their weaker polling and fundraising amid Lamb's 96% name recognition and +63% net favorability. Late-breaking scandals or surges could alter odds, but current wisdom of crowds favors Lamb decisively.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$44,355
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, 2026, driven by his commanding leads in multiple polls—including a December 2025 survey showing him at 63.5% among likely GOP primary voters—and high-profile endorsements from President Trump in November 2025 and Club for Growth PAC. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift sentiment, solidifying Lamb's frontrunner status in this open seat race to replace Rep. Andy Biggs, who is pursuing the governorship. State Rep. Travis Grantham trails at 3.4% and former NFL kicker Jay Feely at 2.8%, reflecting their weaker polling and fundraising amid Lamb's 96% name recognition and +63% net favorability. Late-breaking scandals or surges could alter odds, but current wisdom of crowds favors Lamb decisively.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$44,355
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Lamb" at 90%, followed by "Travis Grantham" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $44.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mark Lamb" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Travis Grantham" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.