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Labor Department predictions & odds

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Who will Trump announce as next Secretary of Labor?

Who will Trump announce as next Secretary of Labor?

43%

Keith Sonderling

$45.1K Vol.

$21.4K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Mexico Legislative Election Winner

Mexico Legislative Election Winner

87%

Morena

$7.6K Vol.

$192K Liq.

Ends in about 1 year

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

28%

5.0%

$389K Vol.

$17.5K Liq.

13

Ends in 8 months

May Unemployment Rate

May Unemployment Rate

38%

4.3%

$511 Vol.

$32.5K Liq.

Ends in 18 days

Will Workday Q1 total subscription revenue backlog be above __?

Will Workday Q1 total subscription revenue backlog be above __?

91%

$27.5B

$621 Vol.

$96 Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

47%

$12.6K Vol.

$7.7K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Major US official out by May 31?

Major US official out by May 31?

17%

$20.0K Vol.

$10.3K Liq.

Ends in 13 days

US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

32%

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

$3.4K Vol.

$2.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 9 months

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

29%

$18.8K Vol.

$4.1K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

23%

$1M Vol.

$18.3K Liq.

66

Ends in 9 months

May Inflation US - Annual

May Inflation US - Annual

37%

≥4.4%

$43.6K Vol.

$103K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?

Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?

8%

$10.7K Vol.

$5.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

4%

May 31

$146K Vol.

$19.9K Liq.

10

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

9%

$6.3K Vol.

$1.3K Liq.

2

Ends in 9 months

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

74%

$117K Vol.

$22.8K Liq.

13

Ends in about 1 month

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

84%

Up

$25.3K Vol.

$8.9K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

What floor price will Pudgy Penguins hit before 2027?

What floor price will Pudgy Penguins hit before 2027?

41%

↑ 10 ETH

$3.5K Vol.

$945 Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

39%

Tulsi Gabbard

$11.7K Vol.

$38.0K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

May Inflation US - Monthly

May Inflation US - Monthly

38%

0.5%

$1.6K Vol.

$40.5K Liq.

Ends in 24 days

SPLC found guilty in 2026?

SPLC found guilty in 2026?

65%

$262 Vol.

$92 Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 106 active markets for Labor Department that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Who will Trump announce as next Secretary of Labor?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $2.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “How high will US unemployment go in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “US recession by end of 2026?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 78% chance to No. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Labor Department predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.