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Geopolitics·Trump

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Trump

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

22% chance
Polymarket

$59,733 Vol.

22% chance
Polymarket

$59,733 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favors no US federal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro at 77% implied probability, driven by the absence of any formal Justice Department indictment announcement despite early March developments. Then, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier reopened a state-level criminal probe into Castro's alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, while DOJ's Miami U.S. Attorney formed a working group exploring federal cases against Cuban officials amid pressure from lawmakers like Rep. Carlos Gimenez and Sen. Rick Scott. No progress has materialized in six weeks, tempered by Castro's residence in Cuba, extradition challenges, his advanced age of 94, and recent US diplomatic engagements with Cuban figures including his grandson. Ongoing calls persist, but procedural hurdles sustain skepticism.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$59,733
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 5:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favors no US federal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro at 77% implied probability, driven by the absence of any formal Justice Department indictment announcement despite early March developments. Then, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier reopened a state-level criminal probe into Castro's alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, while DOJ's Miami U.S. Attorney formed a working group exploring federal cases against Cuban officials amid pressure from lawmakers like Rep. Carlos Gimenez and Sen. Rick Scott. No progress has materialized in six weeks, tempered by Castro's residence in Cuba, extradition challenges, his advanced age of 94, and recent US diplomatic engagements with Cuban figures including his grandson. Ongoing calls persist, but procedural hurdles sustain skepticism.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$59,733
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 5:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 22% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 22¢, the market collectively assigns a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?" has generated $59.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?" is 22% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 22% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.