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Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Market icon
Politics·Cuba

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

41% chance
Polymarket

$207,333 Vol.

41% chance
Polymarket

$207,333 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader consensus favors Miguel Díaz-Canel remaining Cuban president through June 30 at 59.5% implied probability on "No," driven by Havana's firm rejections of U.S. demands for his ouster during recent bilateral negotiations over sanctions and oil embargoes. Cuban Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío and UN envoy statements in mid-March categorically ruled out removing Díaz-Canel to appease Washington, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied such pressure. Díaz-Canel, re-elected in 2023 for a second five-year term by the National Assembly until 2028, continues public addresses, including confirming Raúl Castro's involvement in talks as recently as March 26. Amid economic strains and speculation on Castro family successors, no internal party shifts or procedural votes signal imminent leadership change before the deadline.

Trader consensus favors Miguel Díaz-Canel remaining Cuban president through June 30 at 59.5% implied probability on "No," driven by Havana's firm rejections of U.S. demands for his ouster during recent bilateral negotiations over sanctions and oil embargoes. Cuban Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío and UN envoy statements in mid-March categorically ruled out removing Díaz-Canel to appease Washington, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied such pressure. Díaz-Canel, re-elected in 2023 for a second five-year term by the National Assembly until 2028, continues public addresses, including confirming Raúl Castro's involvement in talks as recently as March 26. Amid economic strains and speculation on Castro family successors, no internal party shifts or procedural votes signal imminent leadership change before the deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader consensus favors Miguel Díaz-Canel remaining Cuban president through June 30 at 59.5% implied probability on "No," driven by Havana's firm rejections of U.S. demands for his ouster during recent bilateral negotiations over sanctions and oil embargoes. Cuban Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío and UN envoy statements in mid-March categorically ruled out removing Díaz-Canel to appease Washington, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied such pressure. Díaz-Canel, re-elected in 2023 for a second five-year term by the National Assembly until 2028, continues public addresses, including confirming Raúl Castro's involvement in talks as recently as March 26. Amid economic strains and speculation on Castro family successors, no internal party shifts or procedural votes signal imminent leadership change before the deadline.

Trader consensus favors Miguel Díaz-Canel remaining Cuban president through June 30 at 59.5% implied probability on "No," driven by Havana's firm rejections of U.S. demands for his ouster during recent bilateral negotiations over sanctions and oil embargoes. Cuban Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío and UN envoy statements in mid-March categorically ruled out removing Díaz-Canel to appease Washington, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied such pressure. Díaz-Canel, re-elected in 2023 for a second five-year term by the National Assembly until 2028, continues public addresses, including confirming Raúl Castro's involvement in talks as recently as March 26. Amid economic strains and speculation on Castro family successors, no internal party shifts or procedural votes signal imminent leadership change before the deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 41% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 41¢, the market collectively assigns a 41% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" has generated $207.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" is 41% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 41% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.