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icon for Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

icon for Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

$3,332,284 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$3,332,284 Vol.

Polymarket

May 15

$3,215,359 Vol.

Yes

May 31

$80,787 Vol.

Yes

December 31

$36,138 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's February 2026 directive instructed the Pentagon and other agencies to identify and release government records on unidentified anomalous phenomena, or UAP, along with any related extraterrestrial information. This order prompted the Department of War to launch the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters, resulting in the first public batch of declassified documents, photos, and videos posted on May 8, 2026. Additional materials are scheduled for release on a rolling basis every few weeks as reviews continue across multiple agencies. Congressional interest from members focused on greater transparency has reinforced the process, while the scope of reviewing decades of records introduces timing uncertainty that shapes trader views on when further disclosures may occur.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,332,284
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's February 2026 directive instructed the Pentagon and other agencies to identify and release government records on unidentified anomalous phenomena, or UAP, along with any related extraterrestrial information. This order prompted the Department of War to launch the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters, resulting in the first public batch of declassified documents, photos, and videos posted on May 8, 2026. Additional materials are scheduled for release on a rolling basis every few weeks as reviews continue across multiple agencies. Congressional interest from members focused on greater transparency has reinforced the process, while the scope of reviewing decades of records introduces timing uncertainty that shapes trader views on when further disclosures may occur.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,332,284
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 15" at 100%, followed by "May 31" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" has generated $3.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" is "May 15" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.