In the opening months of the second Trump administration, trader consensus on the next cabinet departure remains closely split between Tulsi Gabbard and no change before 2027, with Howard Lutnick and Marco Rubio positioned as nearer-term alternatives. Early confirmation hearings, initial agency leadership transitions, and ongoing Senate oversight have kept several officials under review, particularly in intelligence and commerce roles where performance metrics and legislative priorities intersect. Internal administration dynamics, public statements on policy implementation, and potential executive branch adjustments continue to shape these probabilities without a single dominant signal emerging. Scheduled votes on appropriations or diplomatic developments could separate the field by spotlighting individual accountability or reinforcing broader institutional continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTulsi Gabbard 48%
None before 2027 27%
Howard Lutnick 23.6%
Susie Wiles 7.0%
$11,710 Vol.
$11,710 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
38%
None before 2027
27%
Howard Lutnick
24%
Susie Wiles
7%
Marco Rubio
18%
Chris Wright
5%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Brooke Rollins
3%
Scott Bessent
8%
John Ratcliffe
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard 48%
None before 2027 27%
Howard Lutnick 23.6%
Susie Wiles 7.0%
$11,710 Vol.
$11,710 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,212 Vol.
38%
None before 2027
$223 Vol.
27%
Howard Lutnick
$2,036 Vol.
24%
Susie Wiles
$326 Vol.
7%
Marco Rubio
$294 Vol.
18%
Chris Wright
$390 Vol.
5%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Vol.
4%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Vol.
3%
Scott Bessent
$238 Vol.
8%
John Ratcliffe
$259 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$415 Vol.
2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$352 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$318 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.In the opening months of the second Trump administration, trader consensus on the next cabinet departure remains closely split between Tulsi Gabbard and no change before 2027, with Howard Lutnick and Marco Rubio positioned as nearer-term alternatives. Early confirmation hearings, initial agency leadership transitions, and ongoing Senate oversight have kept several officials under review, particularly in intelligence and commerce roles where performance metrics and legislative priorities intersect. Internal administration dynamics, public statements on policy implementation, and potential executive branch adjustments continue to shape these probabilities without a single dominant signal emerging. Scheduled votes on appropriations or diplomatic developments could separate the field by spotlighting individual accountability or reinforcing broader institutional continuity.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Volume
$11,710End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.In the opening months of the second Trump administration, trader consensus on the next cabinet departure remains closely split between Tulsi Gabbard and no change before 2027, with Howard Lutnick and Marco Rubio positioned as nearer-term alternatives. Early confirmation hearings, initial agency leadership transitions, and ongoing Senate oversight have kept several officials under review, particularly in intelligence and commerce roles where performance metrics and legislative priorities intersect. Internal administration dynamics, public statements on policy implementation, and potential executive branch adjustments continue to shape these probabilities without a single dominant signal emerging. Scheduled votes on appropriations or diplomatic developments could separate the field by spotlighting individual accountability or reinforcing broader institutional continuity.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$11,710End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the opening months of the second Trump administration, trader consensus on the next cabinet departure remains closely split between Tulsi Gabbard and no change before 2027, with Howard Lutnick and Marco Rubio positioned as nearer-term alternatives. Early confirmation hearings, initial agency leadership transitions, and ongoing Senate oversight have kept several officials under review, particularly in intelligence and commerce roles where performance metrics and legislative priorities intersect. Internal administration dynamics, public statements on policy implementation, and potential executive branch adjustments continue to shape these probabilities without a single dominant signal emerging. Scheduled votes on appropriations or diplomatic developments could separate the field by spotlighting individual accountability or reinforcing broader institutional continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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