Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding trader consensus lead in New York's 19th Congressional District House race, reflecting his narrow 2024 victory by two points, strong fundraising advantage over Republican challenger state Sen. Peter Oberacker, and Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating amid a D+1 partisan index. Recent developments include former President Trump's February endorsement of Oberacker and the NRCC's March inclusion of him in its MAGA Majority program targeting key seats, yet these have not overcome Riley's incumbency edge or the district's competitive history in early 2026 assessments. With primaries on June 23, national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party further bolster Democratic positioning ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNY-19 House Election Winner
NY-19 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
75%
Republican Party
25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$224 Vol.
75%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding trader consensus lead in New York's 19th Congressional District House race, reflecting his narrow 2024 victory by two points, strong fundraising advantage over Republican challenger state Sen. Peter Oberacker, and Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating amid a D+1 partisan index. Recent developments include former President Trump's February endorsement of Oberacker and the NRCC's March inclusion of him in its MAGA Majority program targeting key seats, yet these have not overcome Riley's incumbency edge or the district's competitive history in early 2026 assessments. With primaries on June 23, national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party further bolster Democratic positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$224End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding trader consensus lead in New York's 19th Congressional District House race, reflecting his narrow 2024 victory by two points, strong fundraising advantage over Republican challenger state Sen. Peter Oberacker, and Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating amid a D+1 partisan index. Recent developments include former President Trump's February endorsement of Oberacker and the NRCC's March inclusion of him in its MAGA Majority program targeting key seats, yet these have not overcome Riley's incumbency edge or the district's competitive history in early 2026 assessments. With primaries on June 23, national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party further bolster Democratic positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$224End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a commanding trader consensus lead in New York's 19th Congressional District House race, reflecting his narrow 2024 victory by two points, strong fundraising advantage over Republican challenger state Sen. Peter Oberacker, and Cook Political Report's Lean Democratic rating amid a D+1 partisan index. Recent developments include former President Trump's February endorsement of Oberacker and the NRCC's March inclusion of him in its MAGA Majority program targeting key seats, yet these have not overcome Riley's incumbency edge or the district's competitive history in early 2026 assessments. With primaries on June 23, national midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party further bolster Democratic positioning ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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