Incumbent Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democrat, with Tonko securing unopposed primaries and raising over $950,000 compared to challenger Ralph Ambrosio's roughly $29,000. The absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments reinforces trader consensus around the incumbent's reelection prospects on November 3, 2026. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a significant health event, late scandal, or unexpected national political realignment favoring Republicans in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-20 House Election Winner
NY-20 House Election Winner
$35,450 Vol.
$35,450 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Paul Tonko (D)
96%
Ralph Ambrosio (R)
4%
$35,450 Vol.
$35,450 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Paul Tonko (D)
$16,564 Vol.
96%
Ralph Ambrosio (R)
$18,886 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democrat, with Tonko securing unopposed primaries and raising over $950,000 compared to challenger Ralph Ambrosio's roughly $29,000. The absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments reinforces trader consensus around the incumbent's reelection prospects on November 3, 2026. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a significant health event, late scandal, or unexpected national political realignment favoring Republicans in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$35,450End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democrat, with Tonko securing unopposed primaries and raising over $950,000 compared to challenger Ralph Ambrosio's roughly $29,000. The absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments reinforces trader consensus around the incumbent's reelection prospects on November 3, 2026. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a significant health event, late scandal, or unexpected national political realignment favoring Republicans in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,450End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district due to the area's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democrat, with Tonko securing unopposed primaries and raising over $950,000 compared to challenger Ralph Ambrosio's roughly $29,000. The absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments reinforces trader consensus around the incumbent's reelection prospects on November 3, 2026. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a significant health event, late scandal, or unexpected national political realignment favoring Republicans in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions