South Carolina's entrenched Republican dominance, with no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1998, drives trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting the party's historical edge in this deep-red state amid ratings of Solid Republican by forecasters. Term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster's February endorsement of Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette bolsters her in a fragmented six-way Republican primary on June 9, where recent polls show her, U.S. Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, and Attorney General Alan Wilson clustered around 18-22% support. The Democratic primary pits State Rep. Jermaine Johnson against lesser-known challengers like Mullins McLeod, with low name recognition limiting upset potential. Recent catalysts include the March 30 filing deadline finalizing lineups and the April 2 GOP debate, where candidates diverged civilly on issues like gambling expansion, keeping focus on primary dynamics ahead of any general election polling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
88%
Democrat
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$3,800 Vol.
88%
Democrat
$3,691 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.South Carolina's entrenched Republican dominance, with no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1998, drives trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting the party's historical edge in this deep-red state amid ratings of Solid Republican by forecasters. Term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster's February endorsement of Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette bolsters her in a fragmented six-way Republican primary on June 9, where recent polls show her, U.S. Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, and Attorney General Alan Wilson clustered around 18-22% support. The Democratic primary pits State Rep. Jermaine Johnson against lesser-known challengers like Mullins McLeod, with low name recognition limiting upset potential. Recent catalysts include the March 30 filing deadline finalizing lineups and the April 2 GOP debate, where candidates diverged civilly on issues like gambling expansion, keeping focus on primary dynamics ahead of any general election polling.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$7,491End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.South Carolina's entrenched Republican dominance, with no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1998, drives trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting the party's historical edge in this deep-red state amid ratings of Solid Republican by forecasters. Term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster's February endorsement of Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette bolsters her in a fragmented six-way Republican primary on June 9, where recent polls show her, U.S. Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, and Attorney General Alan Wilson clustered around 18-22% support. The Democratic primary pits State Rep. Jermaine Johnson against lesser-known challengers like Mullins McLeod, with low name recognition limiting upset potential. Recent catalysts include the March 30 filing deadline finalizing lineups and the April 2 GOP debate, where candidates diverged civilly on issues like gambling expansion, keeping focus on primary dynamics ahead of any general election polling.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$7,491End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Carolina's entrenched Republican dominance, with no Democratic gubernatorial win since 1998, drives trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November 3 general election, reflecting the party's historical edge in this deep-red state amid ratings of Solid Republican by forecasters. Term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster's February endorsement of Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette bolsters her in a fragmented six-way Republican primary on June 9, where recent polls show her, U.S. Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, and Attorney General Alan Wilson clustered around 18-22% support. The Democratic primary pits State Rep. Jermaine Johnson against lesser-known challengers like Mullins McLeod, with low name recognition limiting upset potential. Recent catalysts include the March 30 filing deadline finalizing lineups and the April 2 GOP debate, where candidates diverged civilly on issues like gambling expansion, keeping focus on primary dynamics ahead of any general election polling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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