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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$470,940,592 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$470,940,592 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,122,977 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,717,645 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,302,183 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,376,823 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,950,555 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,486,065 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,339,705 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,303,200 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,437,504 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,354 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,802,011 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,004,252 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,474,739 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,770 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,408 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,905 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,065,742 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,219,146 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,632,913 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,350,919 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,960,552 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,554,359 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,313 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,638,476 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,293,264 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,933,611 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,118,622 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,402,016 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,729,713 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,152,355 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,257,449 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,960,679 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,873,529 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,870,861 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,960,921 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,496,595 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential election trader consensus at 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, in a fragmented field reflecting early-stage uncertainty over party successors following President Trump's second term. Vance's edge stems from his heir-apparent role and strong early Republican primary polls like New Hampshire's, but recent dips trace to Democratic criticisms, Gen-Z Trump voter skepticism in focus groups, and perceived administration strains including foreign policy tensions. Newsom has gained via a high-profile book tour in New Hampshire—kicking off March 5—and a March California primary poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris. Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% amid reports of Trump's endorsement signals. The 2026 midterms, testing GOP turnout and incumbency advantages, loom as pivotal for separation, alongside nominee announcements or scandals.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential election trader consensus at 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, in a fragmented field reflecting early-stage uncertainty over party successors following President Trump's second term. Vance's edge stems from his heir-apparent role and strong early Republican primary polls like New Hampshire's, but recent dips trace to Democratic criticisms, Gen-Z Trump voter skepticism in focus groups, and perceived administration strains including foreign policy tensions. Newsom has gained via a high-profile book tour in New Hampshire—kicking off March 5—and a March California primary poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris. Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% amid reports of Trump's endorsement signals. The 2026 midterms, testing GOP turnout and incumbency advantages, loom as pivotal for separation, alongside nominee announcements or scandals.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential election trader consensus at 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, in a fragmented field reflecting early-stage uncertainty over party successors following President Trump's second term. Vance's edge stems from his heir-apparent role and strong early Republican primary polls like New Hampshire's, but recent dips trace to Democratic criticisms, Gen-Z Trump voter skepticism in focus groups, and perceived administration strains including foreign policy tensions. Newsom has gained via a high-profile book tour in New Hampshire—kicking off March 5—and a March California primary poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris. Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% amid reports of Trump's endorsement signals. The 2026 midterms, testing GOP turnout and incumbency advantages, loom as pivotal for separation, alongside nominee announcements or scandals.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom lead Polymarket's 2028 presidential election trader consensus at 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively, in a fragmented field reflecting early-stage uncertainty over party successors following President Trump's second term. Vance's edge stems from his heir-apparent role and strong early Republican primary polls like New Hampshire's, but recent dips trace to Democratic criticisms, Gen-Z Trump voter skepticism in focus groups, and perceived administration strains including foreign policy tensions. Newsom has gained via a high-profile book tour in New Hampshire—kicking off March 5—and a March California primary poll showing a 14-point lead over Kamala Harris. Marco Rubio trails at 10.3% amid reports of Trump's endorsement signals. The 2026 midterms, testing GOP turnout and incumbency advantages, loom as pivotal for separation, alongside nominee announcements or scandals.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $470.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.