Skip to main content
Market icon
World·Global Elections

Quebec General Election Winner

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Quebec General Election Winner

PQ 50%

PLQ 37%

CAQ 9%

PCQ <1%

Polymarket

$445,293 Vol.

PQ 50%

PLQ 37%

CAQ 9%

PCQ <1%

Polymarket

$445,293 Vol.

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? icon

PQ

$46,882 Vol.

50%

Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? icon

PLQ

$52,244 Vol.

37%

Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? icon

CAQ

$43,834 Vol.

9%

Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? icon

PCQ

$146,717 Vol.

1%

Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? icon

PVQ

$106,954 Vol.

<1%

Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? icon

QS

$48,662 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 49.5% to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, reflecting projections showing PQ securing around 59 seats despite recent polls giving the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) a slim vote share lead of 32-33% over PQ's 29-32%. This stems from PQ's stronger regional support outside Montreal, where PLQ dominates, enabling an efficient path to plurality per 338Canada models. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 8.5% amid Premier Christine Fréchette's recent April 15 swearing-in following François Legault's January resignation and a bruising leadership race, collapsing CAQ support to 11-14%. PLQ's surge under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the gap since March, but uncertainty persists ahead of the National Assembly's May 5 return.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$445,293
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 49.5% to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, reflecting projections showing PQ securing around 59 seats despite recent polls giving the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) a slim vote share lead of 32-33% over PQ's 29-32%. This stems from PQ's stronger regional support outside Montreal, where PLQ dominates, enabling an efficient path to plurality per 338Canada models. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) languishes at 8.5% amid Premier Christine Fréchette's recent April 15 swearing-in following François Legault's January resignation and a bruising leadership race, collapsing CAQ support to 11-14%. PLQ's surge under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the gap since March, but uncertainty persists ahead of the National Assembly's May 5 return.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$445,293
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

Related

Market icon

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

23%
Market icon

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?

97%
Market icon

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

97%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quebec General Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "PQ" at 50%, followed by "PLQ" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quebec General Election Winner" has generated $445.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quebec General Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quebec General Election Winner" is "PQ" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "PLQ" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quebec General Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.