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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.5%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$471,335,582 Vol.

JD Vance 17.5%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$471,335,582 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,124,702 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,719,407 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,302,248 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,376,918 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,951,044 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,486,610 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,340,456 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,312,330 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,437,910 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,354 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,802,011 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,005,005 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,474,767 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,770 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,576 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,913 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,065,799 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,219,203 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,635,424 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,351,678 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,960,568 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,554,359 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,322 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,639,330 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,293,264 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,019,965 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,118,622 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,402,813 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,758,819 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,153,164 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,913,526 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,279,509 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,029,200 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,914,277 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,028,237 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,500,538 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, reflecting his dominant 37% odds as Republican nominee favorite and strong polling among GOP voters, including a recent JL Partners survey showing him at 53% support. Newsom's near-parity at 24% Democratic nominee odds persists amid a fragmented field, despite dipping California approval ratings. Recent market shifts, with Vance's probabilities declining over the past week per Polymarket updates, stem from trader reactions to Trump administration foreign policy tensions, including Iran developments. The tight contest highlights pre-2026 midterm uncertainty, where swing state outcomes, primary announcements, or scandals could widen gaps in this skin-in-the-game assessment.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, reflecting his dominant 37% odds as Republican nominee favorite and strong polling among GOP voters, including a recent JL Partners survey showing him at 53% support. Newsom's near-parity at 24% Democratic nominee odds persists amid a fragmented field, despite dipping California approval ratings. Recent market shifts, with Vance's probabilities declining over the past week per Polymarket updates, stem from trader reactions to Trump administration foreign policy tensions, including Iran developments. The tight contest highlights pre-2026 midterm uncertainty, where swing state outcomes, primary announcements, or scandals could widen gaps in this skin-in-the-game assessment.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, reflecting his dominant 37% odds as Republican nominee favorite and strong polling among GOP voters, including a recent JL Partners survey showing him at 53% support. Newsom's near-parity at 24% Democratic nominee odds persists amid a fragmented field, despite dipping California approval ratings. Recent market shifts, with Vance's probabilities declining over the past week per Polymarket updates, stem from trader reactions to Trump administration foreign policy tensions, including Iran developments. The tight contest highlights pre-2026 midterm uncertainty, where swing state outcomes, primary announcements, or scandals could widen gaps in this skin-in-the-game assessment.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, reflecting his dominant 37% odds as Republican nominee favorite and strong polling among GOP voters, including a recent JL Partners survey showing him at 53% support. Newsom's near-parity at 24% Democratic nominee odds persists amid a fragmented field, despite dipping California approval ratings. Recent market shifts, with Vance's probabilities declining over the past week per Polymarket updates, stem from trader reactions to Trump administration foreign policy tensions, including Iran developments. The tight contest highlights pre-2026 midterm uncertainty, where swing state outcomes, primary announcements, or scandals could widen gaps in this skin-in-the-game assessment.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $471.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.