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World·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson 59%

Ulf Kristersson 34%

Jimmie Åkesson 5.3%

Ebba Busch 2.1%

Polymarket

$1,401,590 Vol.

Magdalena Andersson 59%

Ulf Kristersson 34%

Jimmie Åkesson 5.3%

Ebba Busch 2.1%

Polymarket

$1,401,590 Vol.

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Magdalena Andersson

$40,509 Vol.

59%

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Ulf Kristersson

$33,508 Vol.

34%

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Jimmie Åkesson

$1,054,329 Vol.

5%

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Ebba Busch

$216,206 Vol.

2%

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Amanda Lind

$9,714 Vol.

<1%

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Nooshi Dadgostar

$7,985 Vol.

<1%

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Anna-Karin Hatt

$9,787 Vol.

<1%

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Simona Mohamsson

$12,923 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Helldén

$8,975 Vol.

<1%

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Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist

$10,800 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors Magdalena Andersson at 58.5% implied probability to become Sweden's next prime minister following the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, reflecting recent polls where her Social Democrats lead around 31-33% amid a tight race between the Red-Greens (45-48%) and Tidö parties (44-47%). Incumbent Ulf Kristersson trails at 33.5%, buoyed by his Moderate Party's steady 17-18% support and the Tidö bloc's competitiveness in March surveys like Demoskop showing a slim lead. A March 13 "Sweden Promise" deal between Liberals leader Simona Mohamsson and Sweden Democrats' Jimmie Åkesson eased coalition tensions on the right despite internal Liberal turmoil, stabilizing Liberals above the 4% threshold at 4.5-5% and narrowing the gap. Jimmie Åkesson at 5.3% captures Sweden Democrats' strong 20% polling, while others lag as minor players. Polls remain volatile six months out, with migration policy backlash and bloc negotiations key to tipping the balance under proportional representation.

Trader consensus favors Magdalena Andersson at 58.5% implied probability to become Sweden's next prime minister following the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, reflecting recent polls where her Social Democrats lead around 31-33% amid a tight race between the Red-Greens (45-48%) and Tidö parties (44-47%). Incumbent Ulf Kristersson trails at 33.5%, buoyed by his Moderate Party's steady 17-18% support and the Tidö bloc's competitiveness in March surveys like Demoskop showing a slim lead. A March 13 "Sweden Promise" deal between Liberals leader Simona Mohamsson and Sweden Democrats' Jimmie Åkesson eased coalition tensions on the right despite internal Liberal turmoil, stabilizing Liberals above the 4% threshold at 4.5-5% and narrowing the gap. Jimmie Åkesson at 5.3% captures Sweden Democrats' strong 20% polling, while others lag as minor players. Polls remain volatile six months out, with migration policy backlash and bloc negotiations key to tipping the balance under proportional representation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors Magdalena Andersson at 58.5% implied probability to become Sweden's next prime minister following the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, reflecting recent polls where her Social Democrats lead around 31-33% amid a tight race between the Red-Greens (45-48%) and Tidö parties (44-47%). Incumbent Ulf Kristersson trails at 33.5%, buoyed by his Moderate Party's steady 17-18% support and the Tidö bloc's competitiveness in March surveys like Demoskop showing a slim lead. A March 13 "Sweden Promise" deal between Liberals leader Simona Mohamsson and Sweden Democrats' Jimmie Åkesson eased coalition tensions on the right despite internal Liberal turmoil, stabilizing Liberals above the 4% threshold at 4.5-5% and narrowing the gap. Jimmie Åkesson at 5.3% captures Sweden Democrats' strong 20% polling, while others lag as minor players. Polls remain volatile six months out, with migration policy backlash and bloc negotiations key to tipping the balance under proportional representation.

Trader consensus favors Magdalena Andersson at 58.5% implied probability to become Sweden's next prime minister following the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, reflecting recent polls where her Social Democrats lead around 31-33% amid a tight race between the Red-Greens (45-48%) and Tidö parties (44-47%). Incumbent Ulf Kristersson trails at 33.5%, buoyed by his Moderate Party's steady 17-18% support and the Tidö bloc's competitiveness in March surveys like Demoskop showing a slim lead. A March 13 "Sweden Promise" deal between Liberals leader Simona Mohamsson and Sweden Democrats' Jimmie Åkesson eased coalition tensions on the right despite internal Liberal turmoil, stabilizing Liberals above the 4% threshold at 4.5-5% and narrowing the gap. Jimmie Åkesson at 5.3% captures Sweden Democrats' strong 20% polling, while others lag as minor players. Polls remain volatile six months out, with migration policy backlash and bloc negotiations key to tipping the balance under proportional representation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Sweden" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Magdalena Andersson" at 59%, followed by "Ulf Kristersson" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Sweden" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Sweden," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Sweden" is "Magdalena Andersson" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ulf Kristersson" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Sweden" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.