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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.7%

Polymarket

$470,812,921 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.7%

Polymarket

$470,812,921 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,122,904 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,717,146 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,301,710 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,376,109 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,948,966 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,485,314 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,336,992 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,302,674 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,436,246 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,440,944 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,801,994 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,002,351 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,474,693 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,728 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,229 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,905 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,065,672 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,219,090 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,626,009 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,350,161 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,959,792 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,551,615 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,313 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,931,774 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,610,903 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,288,288 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,118,622 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,401,303 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,728,087 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,151,345 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,253,309 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,940,318 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,855,545 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,870,765 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,932,994 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,487,606 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus edge at 17.8% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as recent escalation in the Iran conflict spotlights Vance's balancing act between MAGA loyalty and foreign policy restraint, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains at 10.3% from visible diplomatic roles including Iran negotiations. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty two years before primaries, with no major candidates formally declared and the 2026 midterms looming as a key test of Republican incumbency strength versus Democratic rebound potential in battleground states. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, Iran resolution, or high-profile endorsements, amid historical patterns where vice presidential successors face long odds without broad party consolidation.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus edge at 17.8% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as recent escalation in the Iran conflict spotlights Vance's balancing act between MAGA loyalty and foreign policy restraint, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains at 10.3% from visible diplomatic roles including Iran negotiations. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty two years before primaries, with no major candidates formally declared and the 2026 midterms looming as a key test of Republican incumbency strength versus Democratic rebound potential in battleground states. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, Iran resolution, or high-profile endorsements, amid historical patterns where vice presidential successors face long odds without broad party consolidation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus edge at 17.8% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as recent escalation in the Iran conflict spotlights Vance's balancing act between MAGA loyalty and foreign policy restraint, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains at 10.3% from visible diplomatic roles including Iran negotiations. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty two years before primaries, with no major candidates formally declared and the 2026 midterms looming as a key test of Republican incumbency strength versus Democratic rebound potential in battleground states. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, Iran resolution, or high-profile endorsements, amid historical patterns where vice presidential successors face long odds without broad party consolidation.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus edge at 17.8% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as recent escalation in the Iran conflict spotlights Vance's balancing act between MAGA loyalty and foreign policy restraint, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains at 10.3% from visible diplomatic roles including Iran negotiations. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty two years before primaries, with no major candidates formally declared and the 2026 midterms looming as a key test of Republican incumbency strength versus Democratic rebound potential in battleground states. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, Iran resolution, or high-profile endorsements, amid historical patterns where vice presidential successors face long odds without broad party consolidation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $470.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.