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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$471,457,008 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$471,457,008 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,135,025 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,721,922 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,302,791 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,377,292 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,957,388 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,491,830 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,342,986 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,314,461 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,439,665 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,374 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,010,557 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,802,378 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,476,390 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,797 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,636 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,932 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,069,825 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,219,327 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,650,680 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,351,716 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,961,418 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,558,179 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,738 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,020,074 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,639,440 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,293,364 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,409,023 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,760,847 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,159,374 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,119,586 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,914,660 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,284,176 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,034,972 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,919,002 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,034,430 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,521,520 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance's win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll, marking his second consecutive top finish among conservatives for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, has reinforced trader consensus as the narrow leader at 17.6%, bolstered by his position as heir apparent under term-limited President Trump. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows closely at 17.2% after surging to a commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a March California Democratic primary poll, highlighting his early momentum amid Democrats' post-2024 leadership vacuum. This tight contest and fragmented field—Marco Rubio at 10.2%, others trailing—reflects high uncertainty pre-primaries, with 2026 midterms critical for swing state gains, incumbency advantages, and Electoral College viability that could widen gaps.

Vice President JD Vance's win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll, marking his second consecutive top finish among conservatives for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, has reinforced trader consensus as the narrow leader at 17.6%, bolstered by his position as heir apparent under term-limited President Trump. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows closely at 17.2% after surging to a commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a March California Democratic primary poll, highlighting his early momentum amid Democrats' post-2024 leadership vacuum. This tight contest and fragmented field—Marco Rubio at 10.2%, others trailing—reflects high uncertainty pre-primaries, with 2026 midterms critical for swing state gains, incumbency advantages, and Electoral College viability that could widen gaps.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance's win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll, marking his second consecutive top finish among conservatives for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, has reinforced trader consensus as the narrow leader at 17.6%, bolstered by his position as heir apparent under term-limited President Trump. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows closely at 17.2% after surging to a commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a March California Democratic primary poll, highlighting his early momentum amid Democrats' post-2024 leadership vacuum. This tight contest and fragmented field—Marco Rubio at 10.2%, others trailing—reflects high uncertainty pre-primaries, with 2026 midterms critical for swing state gains, incumbency advantages, and Electoral College viability that could widen gaps.

Vice President JD Vance's win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll, marking his second consecutive top finish among conservatives for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, has reinforced trader consensus as the narrow leader at 17.6%, bolstered by his position as heir apparent under term-limited President Trump. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows closely at 17.2% after surging to a commanding lead over Kamala Harris in a March California Democratic primary poll, highlighting his early momentum amid Democrats' post-2024 leadership vacuum. This tight contest and fragmented field—Marco Rubio at 10.2%, others trailing—reflects high uncertainty pre-primaries, with 2026 midterms critical for swing state gains, incumbency advantages, and Electoral College viability that could widen gaps.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $471.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.