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Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Eric Swalwell 59%

Tom Steyer 12.3%

Steve Hilton 9.8%

Matt Mahan 8%

Polymarket

$6,951,438 Vol.

Eric Swalwell 59%

Tom Steyer 12.3%

Steve Hilton 9.8%

Matt Mahan 8%

Polymarket

$6,951,438 Vol.

Eric Swalwell

$100,591 Vol.

59%

Tom Steyer

$2,635,005 Vol.

12%

Steve Hilton

$683,985 Vol.

10%

Matt Mahan

$167,252 Vol.

8%

Elaine Culotti

$53,677 Vol.

4%

Katie Porter

$595,254 Vol.

3%

Chad Bianco

$671,367 Vol.

2%

Eleni Kounalakis

$214,336 Vol.

2%

Toni Atkins

$172,944 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$147,064 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$124,855 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$113,987 Vol.

<1%

Xavier Becerra

$291,652 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$201,899 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$76,317 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$64,660 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$163,658 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$21,912 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$115,975 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$132,255 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$53,357 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$89,627 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$59,809 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rep. Eric Swalwell (58.5%) as the 2026 California governor winner following his surge to the top in the March 11 Emerson College poll, where he led the June top-two primary field at 17-25% amid 25% undecideds, overtaking prior Republican frontrunners like Steve Hilton (now 9.8%) and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco. Tom Steyer (12.3%) and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (7.5%) trail as other Democrats in the fragmented 20+ candidate field, raising risks of a GOP lockout in the primary that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party to November. Swalwell's momentum stems from national name recognition and recent attacks from rivals highlighting the race's intensity, though low voter enthusiasm and undecideds keep the contest fluid ahead of the June 2 primary.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rep. Eric Swalwell (58.5%) as the 2026 California governor winner following his surge to the top in the March 11 Emerson College poll, where he led the June top-two primary field at 17-25% amid 25% undecideds, overtaking prior Republican frontrunners like Steve Hilton (now 9.8%) and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco. Tom Steyer (12.3%) and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (7.5%) trail as other Democrats in the fragmented 20+ candidate field, raising risks of a GOP lockout in the primary that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party to November. Swalwell's momentum stems from national name recognition and recent attacks from rivals highlighting the race's intensity, though low voter enthusiasm and undecideds keep the contest fluid ahead of the June 2 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rep. Eric Swalwell (58.5%) as the 2026 California governor winner following his surge to the top in the March 11 Emerson College poll, where he led the June top-two primary field at 17-25% amid 25% undecideds, overtaking prior Republican frontrunners like Steve Hilton (now 9.8%) and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco. Tom Steyer (12.3%) and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (7.5%) trail as other Democrats in the fragmented 20+ candidate field, raising risks of a GOP lockout in the primary that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party to November. Swalwell's momentum stems from national name recognition and recent attacks from rivals highlighting the race's intensity, though low voter enthusiasm and undecideds keep the contest fluid ahead of the June 2 primary.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rep. Eric Swalwell (58.5%) as the 2026 California governor winner following his surge to the top in the March 11 Emerson College poll, where he led the June top-two primary field at 17-25% amid 25% undecideds, overtaking prior Republican frontrunners like Steve Hilton (now 9.8%) and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco. Tom Steyer (12.3%) and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (7.5%) trail as other Democrats in the fragmented 20+ candidate field, raising risks of a GOP lockout in the primary that advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party to November. Swalwell's momentum stems from national name recognition and recent attacks from rivals highlighting the race's intensity, though low voter enthusiasm and undecideds keep the contest fluid ahead of the June 2 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 59%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Election Winner" has generated $7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Election Winner" is "Eric Swalwell" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.