Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.5%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$471,379,345 Vol.

JD Vance 17.5%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$471,379,345 Vol.

Market icon

JD Vance

$9,129,399 Vol.

18%

Market icon

Gavin Newsom

$6,721,861 Vol.

17%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$5,302,351 Vol.

10%

Market icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,377,186 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Jon Ossoff

$2,951,741 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Kamala Harris

$6,487,463 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$9,340,907 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,312,441 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$6,438,836 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,354 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Andy Beshear

$15,007,672 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$5,802,017 Vol.

2%

Market icon

JB Pritzker

$9,475,072 Vol.

1%

Market icon

James Talarico

$3,753,770 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,576 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$3,994,932 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jamie Dimon

$7,065,799 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Michelle Obama

$13,219,203 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$7,643,071 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$31,351,688 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$21,960,769 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Wes Moore

$5,556,192 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,559 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ro Khanna

$5,639,430 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$3,293,364 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$21,020,065 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tim Walz

$38,404,288 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$19,758,942 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Stephen Smith

$28,156,996 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$27,119,464 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,914,642 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Zohran Mamdani

$16,280,965 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$5,031,948 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$1,916,952 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$29,029,151 Vol.

1%

Market icon

LeBron James

$42,507,011 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.5% implied probability on Polymarket, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.3%, reflecting early-stage uncertainty two years out from primaries. Recent escalation in the Iran conflict, including President Trump's reported deliberations on Vance versus Rubio roles, has driven Vance's odds to recent lows amid perceptions of GOP foreign policy risks, while Newsom has boosted his profile through national interviews on Trump policies, foreign affairs commentary, and proposals like mandatory national service. The 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst, with outcomes in swing states and turnout among key voting blocs potentially elevating incumbency advantages, primary endorsements, or challengers like Rubio on the Republican side and progressive figures on the Democratic side to create separation in this closely contested field.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.5% implied probability on Polymarket, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.3%, reflecting early-stage uncertainty two years out from primaries. Recent escalation in the Iran conflict, including President Trump's reported deliberations on Vance versus Rubio roles, has driven Vance's odds to recent lows amid perceptions of GOP foreign policy risks, while Newsom has boosted his profile through national interviews on Trump policies, foreign affairs commentary, and proposals like mandatory national service. The 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst, with outcomes in swing states and turnout among key voting blocs potentially elevating incumbency advantages, primary endorsements, or challengers like Rubio on the Republican side and progressive figures on the Democratic side to create separation in this closely contested field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.5% implied probability on Polymarket, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.3%, reflecting early-stage uncertainty two years out from primaries. Recent escalation in the Iran conflict, including President Trump's reported deliberations on Vance versus Rubio roles, has driven Vance's odds to recent lows amid perceptions of GOP foreign policy risks, while Newsom has boosted his profile through national interviews on Trump policies, foreign affairs commentary, and proposals like mandatory national service. The 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst, with outcomes in swing states and turnout among key voting blocs potentially elevating incumbency advantages, primary endorsements, or challengers like Rubio on the Republican side and progressive figures on the Democratic side to create separation in this closely contested field.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.5% implied probability on Polymarket, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio third at 10.3%, reflecting early-stage uncertainty two years out from primaries. Recent escalation in the Iran conflict, including President Trump's reported deliberations on Vance versus Rubio roles, has driven Vance's odds to recent lows amid perceptions of GOP foreign policy risks, while Newsom has boosted his profile through national interviews on Trump policies, foreign affairs commentary, and proposals like mandatory national service. The 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst, with outcomes in swing states and turnout among key voting blocs potentially elevating incumbency advantages, primary endorsements, or challengers like Rubio on the Republican side and progressive figures on the Democratic side to create separation in this closely contested field.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $471.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.