US-Israel airstrikes targeted Iranian pharmaceutical and steel facilities in Isfahan on April 1, prompting one of Iran's largest missile barrages on central Israel ahead of Passover, underscoring ongoing escalation now in its 34th day since February 28. President Trump addressed the nation that evening, asserting military objectives are nearing completion and forecasting an end within two to three weeks through intensified bombing, while Iran dismissed ceasefire claims and direct talks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, fueling oil price surges and global economic strain. Traders assess trader consensus amid diplomatic posturing, potential regime pressures in Tehran, and risks of multi-front expansion, with no verified de-escalation signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$11,522,058 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 15
10%
April 7
3%
April 30
35%
May 15
51%
June 30
71%
December 31
87%
$11,522,058 Vol.
March 31
$4,989,742 Vol.
<1%
April 15
$1,656,763 Vol.
10%
April 7
$781,917 Vol.
3%
April 30
$1,048,751 Vol.
35%
May 15
$1,523,073 Vol.
51%
June 30
$1,119,833 Vol.
71%
December 31
$417,598 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israel airstrikes targeted Iranian pharmaceutical and steel facilities in Isfahan on April 1, prompting one of Iran's largest missile barrages on central Israel ahead of Passover, underscoring ongoing escalation now in its 34th day since February 28. President Trump addressed the nation that evening, asserting military objectives are nearing completion and forecasting an end within two to three weeks through intensified bombing, while Iran dismissed ceasefire claims and direct talks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, fueling oil price surges and global economic strain. Traders assess trader consensus amid diplomatic posturing, potential regime pressures in Tehran, and risks of multi-front expansion, with no verified de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$11,522,058End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israel airstrikes targeted Iranian pharmaceutical and steel facilities in Isfahan on April 1, prompting one of Iran's largest missile barrages on central Israel ahead of Passover, underscoring ongoing escalation now in its 34th day since February 28. President Trump addressed the nation that evening, asserting military objectives are nearing completion and forecasting an end within two to three weeks through intensified bombing, while Iran dismissed ceasefire claims and direct talks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, fueling oil price surges and global economic strain. Traders assess trader consensus amid diplomatic posturing, potential regime pressures in Tehran, and risks of multi-front expansion, with no verified de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$11,522,058End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US-Israel airstrikes targeted Iranian pharmaceutical and steel facilities in Isfahan on April 1, prompting one of Iran's largest missile barrages on central Israel ahead of Passover, underscoring ongoing escalation now in its 34th day since February 28. President Trump addressed the nation that evening, asserting military objectives are nearing completion and forecasting an end within two to three weeks through intensified bombing, while Iran dismissed ceasefire claims and direct talks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, fueling oil price surges and global economic strain. Traders assess trader consensus amid diplomatic posturing, potential regime pressures in Tehran, and risks of multi-front expansion, with no verified de-escalation signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions