Russian forces conducted airstrikes near Oleksandrivka and Havrylivka in Donetsk Oblast over the past day amid 171 reported combat engagements across the front, per Ukrainian military updates, but have not entered the settlement according to Institute for the Study of War (ISW) maps tracking the specific coordinates at 48.072788, 36.523524. ISW assessments from March 28 highlight ongoing Russian assaults northeast of Oleksandrivka toward Ivanivka, Zelenyi Hai, Sosnivka, and Havrylivka on the Pokrovsk axis, where Ukrainian counterattacks have stalled advances. No major breakthroughs occurred in the past 30 days despite intensified probing, as Ukrainian defenses leverage fortifications and drones against Russian manpower constraints. Trader sentiment reflects slow territorial gains, with spring weather potentially aiding mobility but escalation risks from Ukrainian reinforcements or Western aid deliveries looming as key variables ahead of market resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$19,368 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
April 30
13%
$19,368 Vol.
April 30
$1,219 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces conducted airstrikes near Oleksandrivka and Havrylivka in Donetsk Oblast over the past day amid 171 reported combat engagements across the front, per Ukrainian military updates, but have not entered the settlement according to Institute for the Study of War (ISW) maps tracking the specific coordinates at 48.072788, 36.523524. ISW assessments from March 28 highlight ongoing Russian assaults northeast of Oleksandrivka toward Ivanivka, Zelenyi Hai, Sosnivka, and Havrylivka on the Pokrovsk axis, where Ukrainian counterattacks have stalled advances. No major breakthroughs occurred in the past 30 days despite intensified probing, as Ukrainian defenses leverage fortifications and drones against Russian manpower constraints. Trader sentiment reflects slow territorial gains, with spring weather potentially aiding mobility but escalation risks from Ukrainian reinforcements or Western aid deliveries looming as key variables ahead of market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 7:59 AM ET
Volume
$19,368End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 7:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces conducted airstrikes near Oleksandrivka and Havrylivka in Donetsk Oblast over the past day amid 171 reported combat engagements across the front, per Ukrainian military updates, but have not entered the settlement according to Institute for the Study of War (ISW) maps tracking the specific coordinates at 48.072788, 36.523524. ISW assessments from March 28 highlight ongoing Russian assaults northeast of Oleksandrivka toward Ivanivka, Zelenyi Hai, Sosnivka, and Havrylivka on the Pokrovsk axis, where Ukrainian counterattacks have stalled advances. No major breakthroughs occurred in the past 30 days despite intensified probing, as Ukrainian defenses leverage fortifications and drones against Russian manpower constraints. Trader sentiment reflects slow territorial gains, with spring weather potentially aiding mobility but escalation risks from Ukrainian reinforcements or Western aid deliveries looming as key variables ahead of market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$19,368End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 7:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces conducted airstrikes near Oleksandrivka and Havrylivka in Donetsk Oblast over the past day amid 171 reported combat engagements across the front, per Ukrainian military updates, but have not entered the settlement according to Institute for the Study of War (ISW) maps tracking the specific coordinates at 48.072788, 36.523524. ISW assessments from March 28 highlight ongoing Russian assaults northeast of Oleksandrivka toward Ivanivka, Zelenyi Hai, Sosnivka, and Havrylivka on the Pokrovsk axis, where Ukrainian counterattacks have stalled advances. No major breakthroughs occurred in the past 30 days despite intensified probing, as Ukrainian defenses leverage fortifications and drones against Russian manpower constraints. Trader sentiment reflects slow territorial gains, with spring weather potentially aiding mobility but escalation risks from Ukrainian reinforcements or Western aid deliveries looming as key variables ahead of market resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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