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Geopolitics·Israel

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Israel

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11% chance
Polymarket

$49,795 Vol.

11% chance
Polymarket

$49,795 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's focus on active conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon has sidelined annexation plans for West Bank territory, driving trader consensus to an 89% implied probability of "No" before 2027. Despite rhetoric from far-right ministers like Bezalel Smotrich advocating sovereignty over settlements, Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition has taken no concrete legislative or executive steps amid international opposition from the US, EU, and UN, which view annexation as a barrier to diplomacy. Recent developments, including a US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in late November 2024 and stalled Gaza hostage negotiations, reinforce prioritization of security over territorial expansion. US President-elect Trump's pro-Israel stance emphasizes Iran threats and Hamas defeat rather than West Bank changes, with structural hurdles like Knesset approval and global sanctions risks further dampening near-term prospects.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$49,795
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's focus on active conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon has sidelined annexation plans for West Bank territory, driving trader consensus to an 89% implied probability of "No" before 2027. Despite rhetoric from far-right ministers like Bezalel Smotrich advocating sovereignty over settlements, Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition has taken no concrete legislative or executive steps amid international opposition from the US, EU, and UN, which view annexation as a barrier to diplomacy. Recent developments, including a US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire in late November 2024 and stalled Gaza hostage negotiations, reinforce prioritization of security over territorial expansion. US President-elect Trump's pro-Israel stance emphasizes Iran threats and Hamas defeat rather than West Bank changes, with structural hurdles like Knesset approval and global sanctions risks further dampening near-term prospects.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$49,795
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?" has generated $49.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.