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Politics·Middle East

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?

Market icon
Politics·Middle East

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?

$383,153 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$383,153 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$132,900 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's government has accelerated West Bank settlement expansion and land registrations as state land since December 2025, with security cabinet approvals in February 2026 easing authority over Area C and prompting UN reports of over 36,000 Palestinian displacements through October 2025. Ministers, including the energy minister labeling these "de facto sovereignty" on March 16 and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich advocating southern Lebanon annexation on March 23, signal intent amid Gaza operations and Iran conflict distractions. No formal Knesset annexation law has passed, but a March 17 UN assessment warns of creeping territorial control. Traders monitor for explicit sovereignty declarations by December 31, tempered by U.S. signals under Trump against full West Bank extension.

Israel's government has accelerated West Bank settlement expansion and land registrations as state land since December 2025, with security cabinet approvals in February 2026 easing authority over Area C and prompting UN reports of over 36,000 Palestinian displacements through October 2025. Ministers, including the energy minister labeling these "de facto sovereignty" on March 16 and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich advocating southern Lebanon annexation on March 23, signal intent amid Gaza operations and Iran conflict distractions. No formal Knesset annexation law has passed, but a March 17 UN assessment warns of creeping territorial control. Traders monitor for explicit sovereignty declarations by December 31, tempered by U.S. signals under Trump against full West Bank extension.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's government has accelerated West Bank settlement expansion and land registrations as state land since December 2025, with security cabinet approvals in February 2026 easing authority over Area C and prompting UN reports of over 36,000 Palestinian displacements through October 2025. Ministers, including the energy minister labeling these "de facto sovereignty" on March 16 and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich advocating southern Lebanon annexation on March 23, signal intent amid Gaza operations and Iran conflict distractions. No formal Knesset annexation law has passed, but a March 17 UN assessment warns of creeping territorial control. Traders monitor for explicit sovereignty declarations by December 31, tempered by U.S. signals under Trump against full West Bank extension.

Israel's government has accelerated West Bank settlement expansion and land registrations as state land since December 2025, with security cabinet approvals in February 2026 easing authority over Area C and prompting UN reports of over 36,000 Palestinian displacements through October 2025. Ministers, including the energy minister labeling these "de facto sovereignty" on March 16 and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich advocating southern Lebanon annexation on March 23, signal intent amid Gaza operations and Iran conflict distractions. No formal Knesset annexation law has passed, but a March 17 UN assessment warns of creeping territorial control. Traders monitor for explicit sovereignty declarations by December 31, tempered by U.S. signals under Trump against full West Bank extension.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 16%, followed by "Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?" has generated $383.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?" is "June 30, 2026" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.