Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026, driven by the absence of legislative progress or diplomatic breakthroughs on high-profile proposals like Greenland despite President Trump's January statements at Davos and a Republican House bill authorizing potential action. Countering efforts, including Rep. Jimmy Gomez's legislation to block federal funding for any invasion, annexation, or purchase of Greenland, underscore bipartisan and international resistance from Denmark, NATO allies, and the EU over sovereignty violations. No verifiable military or treaty developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with rhetoric on Canada stalling amid geopolitical backlash and constitutional hurdles requiring congressional approval; late-breaking executive orders or unlikely Senate votes could shift odds, but historical precedents favor inaction since the 19th century.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$19,741 Vol.
$19,741 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$19,741 Vol.
$19,741 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026, driven by the absence of legislative progress or diplomatic breakthroughs on high-profile proposals like Greenland despite President Trump's January statements at Davos and a Republican House bill authorizing potential action. Countering efforts, including Rep. Jimmy Gomez's legislation to block federal funding for any invasion, annexation, or purchase of Greenland, underscore bipartisan and international resistance from Denmark, NATO allies, and the EU over sovereignty violations. No verifiable military or treaty developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with rhetoric on Canada stalling amid geopolitical backlash and constitutional hurdles requiring congressional approval; late-breaking executive orders or unlikely Senate votes could shift odds, but historical precedents favor inaction since the 19th century.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Volume
$19,741End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026, driven by the absence of legislative progress or diplomatic breakthroughs on high-profile proposals like Greenland despite President Trump's January statements at Davos and a Republican House bill authorizing potential action. Countering efforts, including Rep. Jimmy Gomez's legislation to block federal funding for any invasion, annexation, or purchase of Greenland, underscore bipartisan and international resistance from Denmark, NATO allies, and the EU over sovereignty violations. No verifiable military or treaty developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with rhetoric on Canada stalling amid geopolitical backlash and constitutional hurdles requiring congressional approval; late-breaking executive orders or unlikely Senate votes could shift odds, but historical precedents favor inaction since the 19th century.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,741End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no U.S. annexation of territory in 2026, driven by the absence of legislative progress or diplomatic breakthroughs on high-profile proposals like Greenland despite President Trump's January statements at Davos and a Republican House bill authorizing potential action. Countering efforts, including Rep. Jimmy Gomez's legislation to block federal funding for any invasion, annexation, or purchase of Greenland, underscore bipartisan and international resistance from Denmark, NATO allies, and the EU over sovereignty violations. No verifiable military or treaty developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with rhetoric on Canada stalling amid geopolitical backlash and constitutional hurdles requiring congressional approval; late-breaking executive orders or unlikely Senate votes could shift odds, but historical precedents favor inaction since the 19th century.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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