Market icon
Economy·Venezuela

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

Market icon
Economy·Venezuela

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

$46,170 Vol.

Feb 28, 2027
Polymarket

$46,170 Vol.

Polymarket

1m

$0 Vol.

85%

1.1m

$12,409 Vol.

72%

1.2m

$0 Vol.

49%

1.3m

$5,648 Vol.

33%

1.4m

$16,009 Vol.

14%

1.5m

$0 Vol.

11%

1.7m

$0 Vol.

7%

2m

$12,104 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.U.S. Treasury's March 18, 2026, authorization of broad transactions with PDVSA has catalyzed Venezuelan crude oil production to 1.1 million barrels per day in March—including condensate—up from 942,000 bpd in February, driven by Chevron ramp-ups and high Brent crude prices exceeding $108/bbl incentivizing output amid Middle East supply risks. Polymarket traders price an 85% implied probability of hitting 1 million bpd in any 2026 month, with 72% for 1.1 million and 41% for 1.2 million, balancing EIA's 30-40% annual growth forecast to 1.3-1.4 million bpd against infrastructure decay, diluent shortages, and OPEC+ quota dynamics. Key catalysts include April OPEC+ decisions and Q2 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook releases.

U.S. Treasury's March 18, 2026, authorization of broad transactions with PDVSA has catalyzed Venezuelan crude oil production to 1.1 million barrels per day in March—including condensate—up from 942,000 bpd in February, driven by Chevron ramp-ups and high Brent crude prices exceeding $108/bbl incentivizing output amid Middle East supply risks. Polymarket traders price an 85% implied probability of hitting 1 million bpd in any 2026 month, with 72% for 1.1 million and 41% for 1.2 million, balancing EIA's 30-40% annual growth forecast to 1.3-1.4 million bpd against infrastructure decay, diluent shortages, and OPEC+ quota dynamics. Key catalysts include April OPEC+ decisions and Q2 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook releases.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.U.S. Treasury's March 18, 2026, authorization of broad transactions with PDVSA has catalyzed Venezuelan crude oil production to 1.1 million barrels per day in March—including condensate—up from 942,000 bpd in February, driven by Chevron ramp-ups and high Brent crude prices exceeding $108/bbl incentivizing output amid Middle East supply risks. Polymarket traders price an 85% implied probability of hitting 1 million bpd in any 2026 month, with 72% for 1.1 million and 41% for 1.2 million, balancing EIA's 30-40% annual growth forecast to 1.3-1.4 million bpd against infrastructure decay, diluent shortages, and OPEC+ quota dynamics. Key catalysts include April OPEC+ decisions and Q2 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook releases.

U.S. Treasury's March 18, 2026, authorization of broad transactions with PDVSA has catalyzed Venezuelan crude oil production to 1.1 million barrels per day in March—including condensate—up from 942,000 bpd in February, driven by Chevron ramp-ups and high Brent crude prices exceeding $108/bbl incentivizing output amid Middle East supply risks. Polymarket traders price an 85% implied probability of hitting 1 million bpd in any 2026 month, with 72% for 1.1 million and 41% for 1.2 million, balancing EIA's 30-40% annual growth forecast to 1.3-1.4 million bpd against infrastructure decay, diluent shortages, and OPEC+ quota dynamics. Key catalysts include April OPEC+ decisions and Q2 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook releases.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1m" at 85%, followed by "1.1m" at 72%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?" has generated $46.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?" is "1m" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.1m" at 72%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.