Trump administration actions have centered on economic sanctions, secondary tariffs targeting Cuba’s oil suppliers, and legal measures such as the May 2026 indictment of Raúl Castro, sustaining trader expectations that these tools will continue to define U.S. policy through year-end. Executive orders declaring a national emergency and expanding restrictions, combined with reported diplomatic contacts and CIA visits to Havana seeking prisoner releases and reforms, underscore a preference for coercive diplomacy over military engagement. While naval assets remain positioned in the Caribbean and public statements have referenced contingency options, official assessments indicate only scenario planning rather than active invasion preparations, consistent with historical patterns favoring sanctions and negotiations. Ongoing talks and the absence of immediate triggers anchor the 77.5 percent probability assigned to no invasion.