Heightened U.S. economic pressure on Cuba, including an oil blockade and sanctions authorized by executive order after the January 2026 intervention in Venezuela, has driven trader consensus toward no invasion. The Trump administration has pursued regime change objectives through tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, visa restrictions, and an indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, while maintaining diplomatic channels and limited humanitarian aid amid Cuba’s resulting energy shortages and unrest. Recent military signaling, such as intelligence flights and a Southern Command meeting near Guantanamo Bay, has not escalated to deployment or congressional authorization for force. This pattern aligns with historical reliance on sanctions over direct intervention, supporting the 77.5% implied probability that no U.S. invasion will occur by year-end despite ongoing tensions.