Market icon
Politics·Venezuela

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

Market icon
Politics·Venezuela

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

$765,426 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$765,426 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Venezuela relations remain deeply strained following the disputed July 28 presidential election, where opposition leader Edmundo González claimed victory amid fraud allegations and widespread protests, prompting US sanctions on Maduro regime officials and recognition of González as the legitimate winner by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. No military escalations, troop deployments, or congressional resolutions for war have emerged, with US policy emphasizing diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and support for regional allies like Colombia rather than kinetic action. Formal war declarations are exceedingly rare—none since World War II—and require congressional authorization under Article I, Section 8, facing high political barriers absent direct threats. Traders await potential catalysts like intensified border clashes or oil disruptions, but current trader consensus reflects low probability amid de-escalation signals from Caracas talks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$765,426
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Venezuela relations remain deeply strained following the disputed July 28 presidential election, where opposition leader Edmundo González claimed victory amid fraud allegations and widespread protests, prompting US sanctions on Maduro regime officials and recognition of González as the legitimate winner by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. No military escalations, troop deployments, or congressional resolutions for war have emerged, with US policy emphasizing diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and support for regional allies like Colombia rather than kinetic action. Formal war declarations are exceedingly rare—none since World War II—and require congressional authorization under Article I, Section 8, facing high political barriers absent direct threats. Traders await potential catalysts like intensified border clashes or oil disruptions, but current trader consensus reflects low probability amid de-escalation signals from Caracas talks.

US-Venezuela relations remain deeply strained following the disputed July 28 presidential election, where opposition leader Edmundo González claimed victory amid fraud allegations and widespread protests, prompting US sanctions on Maduro regime officials and recognition of González as the legitimate winner by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. No military escalations, troop deployments, or congressional resolutions for war have emerged, with US policy emphasizing diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and support for regional allies like Colombia rather than kinetic action. Formal war declarations are exceedingly rare—none since World War II—and require congressional authorization under Article I, Section 8, facing high political barriers absent direct threats. Traders await potential catalysts like intensified border clashes or oil disruptions, but current trader consensus reflects low probability amid de-escalation signals from Caracas talks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?

23%
Market icon

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?

44%
Market icon

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

36%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 1%, followed by "December 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 1¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 1% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?" has generated $765.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?" is "June 30, 2026" at just 1%, with "December 31" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.