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World·Middle East

Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

Market icon
World·Middle East

Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?

7% chance
Polymarket

$192,010 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$192,010 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Masoud Pezeshkian's ongoing tenure as president, elected in July 2024 for a four-year term ending in 2028, anchors trader consensus at 92.6% against a presidential election by June 30, 2026, as Iran's constitution mandates snap elections only upon the president's death, resignation, dismissal, or permanent incapacity—none of which have occurred. Recent developments, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran war launched February 28, prompted an Assembly of Experts vote for a new supreme leader March 3–8, but left the presidency intact, with Pezeshkian actively issuing diplomatic letters April 1 urging de-escalation. Ongoing hostilities and U.S. strike threats heighten risks, yet absent a leadership vacancy, traders see negligible odds of an election before mid-year amid war uncertainties.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$192,010
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Masoud Pezeshkian's ongoing tenure as president, elected in July 2024 for a four-year term ending in 2028, anchors trader consensus at 92.6% against a presidential election by June 30, 2026, as Iran's constitution mandates snap elections only upon the president's death, resignation, dismissal, or permanent incapacity—none of which have occurred. Recent developments, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran war launched February 28, prompted an Assembly of Experts vote for a new supreme leader March 3–8, but left the presidency intact, with Pezeshkian actively issuing diplomatic letters April 1 urging de-escalation. Ongoing hostilities and U.S. strike threats heighten risks, yet absent a leadership vacancy, traders see negligible odds of an election before mid-year amid war uncertainties.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$192,010
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?" has generated $192K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.