US and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, air defenses, and leadership targets on February 28, 2026, marking the start of open military conflict that continues with coalition support from UK bases like RAF Fairford—where US bombers and RAF jets have conducted operations—and Bahrain's official entry into strikes. Iranian retaliation has included recent missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities like Petah Tikva and Bnei Brak on March 31, a US airbase in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf tankers, prompting defensive intercepts by French and British forces. President Trump stated on March 31 the US campaign could end in two to three weeks, though threats from Iranian proxies like Houthis and militias persist, influencing trader assessments of further escalation or additional countries joining direct action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$4,042,261 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 7
No
March 31
No
$4,042,261 Vol.
March 7
$0 Vol.
No
March 31
$4,042,261 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, air defenses, and leadership targets on February 28, 2026, marking the start of open military conflict that continues with coalition support from UK bases like RAF Fairford—where US bombers and RAF jets have conducted operations—and Bahrain's official entry into strikes. Iranian retaliation has included recent missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities like Petah Tikva and Bnei Brak on March 31, a US airbase in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf tankers, prompting defensive intercepts by French and British forces. President Trump stated on March 31 the US campaign could end in two to three weeks, though threats from Iranian proxies like Houthis and militias persist, influencing trader assessments of further escalation or additional countries joining direct action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ET
Volume
$4,042,261End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, air defenses, and leadership targets on February 28, 2026, marking the start of open military conflict that continues with coalition support from UK bases like RAF Fairford—where US bombers and RAF jets have conducted operations—and Bahrain's official entry into strikes. Iranian retaliation has included recent missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities like Petah Tikva and Bnei Brak on March 31, a US airbase in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf tankers, prompting defensive intercepts by French and British forces. President Trump stated on March 31 the US campaign could end in two to three weeks, though threats from Iranian proxies like Houthis and militias persist, influencing trader assessments of further escalation or additional countries joining direct action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,042,261End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US and Israeli forces launched large-scale airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, air defenses, and leadership targets on February 28, 2026, marking the start of open military conflict that continues with coalition support from UK bases like RAF Fairford—where US bombers and RAF jets have conducted operations—and Bahrain's official entry into strikes. Iranian retaliation has included recent missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities like Petah Tikva and Bnei Brak on March 31, a US airbase in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf tankers, prompting defensive intercepts by French and British forces. President Trump stated on March 31 the US campaign could end in two to three weeks, though threats from Iranian proxies like Houthis and militias persist, influencing trader assessments of further escalation or additional countries joining direct action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions