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Geopolitics·Informant

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Informant

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$83,415 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$83,415 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 100% following the Department of Justice's recent unsealing of charges against an Iranian military official linked to a murder plot targeting U.S. individuals, as revealed by FBI Director Kash Patel on April 9 amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions including military actions and cyber threats. This development, building on the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant—an IRGC-trained Iranian intelligence agent for terrorism and murder-for-hire—solidifies DOJ's aggressive counterintelligence posture against Iranian operatives, with no recent indications of reversal. While near-certain, outcomes could shift via procedural delays, legal challenges to the indictment's validity under the market's "agent of the Iranian government" criterion, or late-breaking diplomatic de-escalation before April 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$83,415
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 100% following the Department of Justice's recent unsealing of charges against an Iranian military official linked to a murder plot targeting U.S. individuals, as revealed by FBI Director Kash Patel on April 9 amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions including military actions and cyber threats. This development, building on the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant—an IRGC-trained Iranian intelligence agent for terrorism and murder-for-hire—solidifies DOJ's aggressive counterintelligence posture against Iranian operatives, with no recent indications of reversal. While near-certain, outcomes could shift via procedural delays, legal challenges to the indictment's validity under the market's "agent of the Iranian government" criterion, or late-breaking diplomatic de-escalation before April 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$83,415
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?" has generated $83.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.