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Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Cait Conley 60%

Beth Davidson 21%

Peter Chatzky 13.6%

Effie Phillips-Staley 4.8%

Polymarket

$53,320 Vol.

Cait Conley 60%

Beth Davidson 21%

Peter Chatzky 13.6%

Effie Phillips-Staley 4.8%

Polymarket

$53,320 Vol.

Cait Conley

$25,149 Vol.

60%

Beth Davidson

$21,545 Vol.

21%

Peter Chatzky

$2,569 Vol.

14%

Effie Phillips-Staley

$733 Vol.

5%

Mike Sacks

$829 Vol.

3%

John Sullivan

$1,150 Vol.

1%

John Cappello

$645 Vol.

1%

Jessica Reinmann

$700 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-17 Democratic primary market heavily favors Cait Conley at 59.5% implied probability for the June 23 closed primary, reflecting her standout combat veteran background, West Point pedigree, and recent endorsements including from the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund in early March, which bolster her appeal among Hudson Valley Democrats seeking a strong challenger to GOP incumbent Mike Lawler. Beth Davidson holds 21% on her Rockland County legislator experience and a recent Impact Research poll showing her at 23% to Conley's 17% amid 45% undecideds, signaling persistent field fragmentation. Peter Chatzky's 13.9% share has softened following a March 19 New York Times exposé on his decade-old bawdy Facebook posts, eroding his self-funded momentum in the eight-candidate scrum; fresh polls or debates could tip the balance before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$53,320
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-17 Democratic primary market heavily favors Cait Conley at 59.5% implied probability for the June 23 closed primary, reflecting her standout combat veteran background, West Point pedigree, and recent endorsements including from the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund in early March, which bolster her appeal among Hudson Valley Democrats seeking a strong challenger to GOP incumbent Mike Lawler. Beth Davidson holds 21% on her Rockland County legislator experience and a recent Impact Research poll showing her at 23% to Conley's 17% amid 45% undecideds, signaling persistent field fragmentation. Peter Chatzky's 13.9% share has softened following a March 19 New York Times exposé on his decade-old bawdy Facebook posts, eroding his self-funded momentum in the eight-candidate scrum; fresh polls or debates could tip the balance before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$53,320
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cait Conley" at 60%, followed by "Beth Davidson" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $53.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Cait Conley" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Beth Davidson" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.