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Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Cait Conley 55%

Beth Davidson 21%

Peter Chatzky 14.4%

Effie Phillips-Staley 10.3%

Polymarket

$53,950 Vol.

Cait Conley 55%

Beth Davidson 21%

Peter Chatzky 14.4%

Effie Phillips-Staley 10.3%

Polymarket

$53,950 Vol.

Cait Conley

$25,493 Vol.

55%

Beth Davidson

$21,698 Vol.

21%

Peter Chatzky

$2,580 Vol.

14%

Effie Phillips-Staley

$807 Vol.

10%

John Cappello

$656 Vol.

2%

Mike Sacks

$840 Vol.

1%

Jessica Reinmann

$719 Vol.

1%

John Sullivan

$1,158 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Cait Conley at 54.5% implied probability to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her combat veteran background, West Point credentials, and recent endorsements including the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3 and Rep. Jason Crow, appealing in this purple Hudson Valley battleground challenging Rep. Mike Lawler. A late February Impact Research poll among likely voters showed Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson leading at 23% to Conley's 17%, with 45% undecided and bolstering her at 20.5% odds amid rising name recognition. Peter Chatzky slipped to 14.4% after a March 19 New York Times report on past bawdy Facebook posts, while Effie Phillips-Staley draws progressive support at 10.3%; high undecideds leave room for fundraising and field shifts ahead of the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$53,950
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Cait Conley at 54.5% implied probability to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her combat veteran background, West Point credentials, and recent endorsements including the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3 and Rep. Jason Crow, appealing in this purple Hudson Valley battleground challenging Rep. Mike Lawler. A late February Impact Research poll among likely voters showed Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson leading at 23% to Conley's 17%, with 45% undecided and bolstering her at 20.5% odds amid rising name recognition. Peter Chatzky slipped to 14.4% after a March 19 New York Times report on past bawdy Facebook posts, while Effie Phillips-Staley draws progressive support at 10.3%; high undecideds leave room for fundraising and field shifts ahead of the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$53,950
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cait Conley" at 55%, followed by "Beth Davidson" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $54K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Cait Conley" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Beth Davidson" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.