Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$427,737 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$427,737 Vol.

Polymarket

Eric Swalwell

$11,075 Vol.

66%

Steve Hilton

$31,539 Vol.

61%

Chad Bianco

$12,052 Vol.

35%

Tom Steyer

$17,911 Vol.

30%

Katie Porter

$4,715 Vol.

20%

Elaine Culotti

$0 Vol.

19%

Matt Mahan

$10,962 Vol.

16%

Xavier Becerra

$3,859 Vol.

6%

Betty Yee

$2,687 Vol.

6%

David Thelen

$750 Vol.

5%

Tony Thurmond

$1,035 Vol.

5%

Ethan Agarwal

$2,470 Vol.

4%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 Vol.

4%

Ché Ahn

$14,844 Vol.

4%

Jimmy Parker

$0 Vol.

4%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$11,477 Vol.

3%

Dylan Colbert

$13,310 Vol.

3%

Nicki Minaj

$0 Vol.

3%

Daniel Mercuri

$8,339 Vol.

3%

Ryan Tillman

$1,313 Vol.

3%

Derek Grasty

$1,039 Vol.

3%

Leo Zacky

$0 Vol.

2%

David Serpa

$3,833 Vol.

2%

Javen Allen

$0 Vol.

10%

Leonard Jackson

$0 Vol.

2%

Raji Rab

$0 Vol.

2%

Kyle Langford

$10,554 Vol.

2%

Carolina Buhler

$6,191 Vol.

2%

Nicholas Thompson

$6,631 Vol.

2%

Thunder Parley

$49,022 Vol.

2%

Butch Ware

$7,512 Vol.

2%

Zoltan Istvan

$11,336 Vol.

2%

Ramsey Robinson

$0 Vol.

1%

Ian Calderon

$112,058 Vol.

1%

Brandon Jones

$33,473 Vol.

1%

Sophia Brink

$37,751 Vol.

1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's open nonpartisan top-two primary for governor on June 2, 2026—triggered by term limits on Gavin Newsom—recent March polls from Berkeley IGS, Emerson College, and others show Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading at 14-17%, ahead of a splintered Democratic field including Reps. Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and billionaire Tom Steyer clustered at 10-13%, with 20-25% undecided. This fragmentation fuels trader consensus on a potential Democrat-Republican November matchup, as prediction markets price high odds for both Hilton and a top Democrat advancing amid low Democratic consolidation. Upcoming debates and voter outreach in the final two months could consolidate support and tip the balance in this closely contested race.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$427,737
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's open nonpartisan top-two primary for governor on June 2, 2026—triggered by term limits on Gavin Newsom—recent March polls from Berkeley IGS, Emerson College, and others show Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading at 14-17%, ahead of a splintered Democratic field including Reps. Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and billionaire Tom Steyer clustered at 10-13%, with 20-25% undecided. This fragmentation fuels trader consensus on a potential Democrat-Republican November matchup, as prediction markets price high odds for both Hilton and a top Democrat advancing amid low Democratic consolidation. Upcoming debates and voter outreach in the final two months could consolidate support and tip the balance in this closely contested race.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$427,737
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Related

Market icon

Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?

73%
Market icon

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

64%
Market icon

Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

80%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 66%, followed by "Steve Hilton" at 61%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $427.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Eric Swalwell" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 61%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.