US and Israel continue their coordinated airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and regime targets, with the Israel Defense Forces reporting over 600 strikes on ballistic missile infrastructure and recent hits confirmed in Tehran, Isfahan, Bushehr, and Mashhad as of March 27-28. This month-long air campaign, launched February 28 following the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, drives trader consensus on these two nations as the sole confirmed participants in military action against Iran by March 31. No Gulf states, UK, or other allies have conducted direct strikes despite Iranian missile barrages on US bases in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere; Trump-extended deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a 15-point US peace proposal via Pakistan introduce de-escalation potential, though attacks persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,266,084 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia
9%
UAE
7%
Qatar
4%
Bahrain
2%
Kuwait
2%
UK
1%
Any E.U. Country
1%
Jordan
1%
Turkey
1%
France
1%
Oman
1%
Germany
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,266,084 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$2,068,055 Vol.
9%
UAE
$2,542,201 Vol.
7%
Qatar
$929,029 Vol.
4%
Bahrain
$386,952 Vol.
2%
Kuwait
$208,348 Vol.
2%
UK
$932,907 Vol.
1%
Any E.U. Country
$453,495 Vol.
1%
Jordan
$184,755 Vol.
1%
Turkey
$470,211 Vol.
1%
France
$722,535 Vol.
1%
Oman
$128,245 Vol.
1%
Germany
$906,051 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$333,451 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel continue their coordinated airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and regime targets, with the Israel Defense Forces reporting over 600 strikes on ballistic missile infrastructure and recent hits confirmed in Tehran, Isfahan, Bushehr, and Mashhad as of March 27-28. This month-long air campaign, launched February 28 following the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, drives trader consensus on these two nations as the sole confirmed participants in military action against Iran by March 31. No Gulf states, UK, or other allies have conducted direct strikes despite Iranian missile barrages on US bases in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere; Trump-extended deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a 15-point US peace proposal via Pakistan introduce de-escalation potential, though attacks persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,266,084End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel continue their coordinated airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and regime targets, with the Israel Defense Forces reporting over 600 strikes on ballistic missile infrastructure and recent hits confirmed in Tehran, Isfahan, Bushehr, and Mashhad as of March 27-28. This month-long air campaign, launched February 28 following the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, drives trader consensus on these two nations as the sole confirmed participants in military action against Iran by March 31. No Gulf states, UK, or other allies have conducted direct strikes despite Iranian missile barrages on US bases in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere; Trump-extended deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a 15-point US peace proposal via Pakistan introduce de-escalation potential, though attacks persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,266,084End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel continue their coordinated airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and regime targets, with the Israel Defense Forces reporting over 600 strikes on ballistic missile infrastructure and recent hits confirmed in Tehran, Isfahan, Bushehr, and Mashhad as of March 27-28. This month-long air campaign, launched February 28 following the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, drives trader consensus on these two nations as the sole confirmed participants in military action against Iran by March 31. No Gulf states, UK, or other allies have conducted direct strikes despite Iranian missile barrages on US bases in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere; Trump-extended deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a 15-point US peace proposal via Pakistan introduce de-escalation potential, though attacks persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions