$2,976,053 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia
32%
Qatar
28%
UAE
23%
UK
19%
Any E.U. Country
19%
Bahrain
16%
Kuwait
14%
Turkey
11%
France
10%
Jordan
10%
Germany
5%
Oman
4%
Canada
3%
$2,976,053 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$624,585 Vol.
32%
Qatar
$511,632 Vol.
28%
UAE
$385,775 Vol.
23%
UK
$321,253 Vol.
19%
Any E.U. Country
$80,702 Vol.
19%
Bahrain
$51,532 Vol.
16%
Kuwait
$17,525 Vol.
14%
Turkey
$127,775 Vol.
11%
France
$282,546 Vol.
10%
Jordan
$98,222 Vol.
10%
Germany
$392,887 Vol.
5%
Oman
$13,949 Vol.
4%
Canada
$67,670 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$2,976,053End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...



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