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Politics·Primaries

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Bert Mizusawa 50%

David Williams 24%

Chuck Smith 24%

Al Mina 7.3%

Polymarket

$2,362,997 Vol.

Bert Mizusawa 50%

David Williams 24%

Chuck Smith 24%

Al Mina 7.3%

Polymarket

$2,362,997 Vol.

Bert Mizusawa

$4,908 Vol.

50%

David Williams

$12,684 Vol.

24%

Chuck Smith

$3,908 Vol.

24%

Al Mina

$1,834,929 Vol.

7%

Kim Farington

$446,573 Vol.

7%

Winsome Earle-Sears

$10,312 Vol.

3%

Alex De Paula

$2,632 Vol.

2%

Bryce Reeves

$33,482 Vol.

1%

Jason Miyares

$13,568 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa at 47% implied probability to win Virginia's Republican U.S. Senate primary on August 4, propelled by his West Point pedigree, Harvard credentials, and decades of national security experience that resonate with GOP primary voters prioritizing defense amid global tensions. Navy-Marine veteran David Williams holds second at 24%, bolstered by his early November 2025 campaign launch and recent grassroots outreach in Southwest Virginia. Marine JAG officer Chuck Smith trails at 12.5% on local party ties, while crowded field including Al Mina, Kim Farington, and state figures like Winsome Earle-Sears and Jason Miyares sees fragmented support absent public primary polls or major endorsements. No pivotal developments in the past 30 days; odds hinge on veteran appeal and perceived electability against incumbent Mark Warner.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$2,362,997
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 26, 2025, 6:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa at 47% implied probability to win Virginia's Republican U.S. Senate primary on August 4, propelled by his West Point pedigree, Harvard credentials, and decades of national security experience that resonate with GOP primary voters prioritizing defense amid global tensions. Navy-Marine veteran David Williams holds second at 24%, bolstered by his early November 2025 campaign launch and recent grassroots outreach in Southwest Virginia. Marine JAG officer Chuck Smith trails at 12.5% on local party ties, while crowded field including Al Mina, Kim Farington, and state figures like Winsome Earle-Sears and Jason Miyares sees fragmented support absent public primary polls or major endorsements. No pivotal developments in the past 30 days; odds hinge on veteran appeal and perceived electability against incumbent Mark Warner.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$2,362,997
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 26, 2025, 6:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bert Mizusawa" at 50%, followed by "David Williams" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $2.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 27, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Bert Mizusawa" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "David Williams" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.