Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities sparked by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February 2026 after failed nuclear talks, trader sentiment hinges on stalled diplomacy and persistent military actions. The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal, transmitted via Pakistan on March 24—offering sanctions relief, nuclear rollback, and missile limits for a one-month truce—was dismissed by Tehran last week as "maximalist and unreasonable," prompting Iran's counterproposal amid continued airstrikes, proxy attacks, and US troop surges to the Middle East. Intermediaries like Pakistan and Egypt push for Islamabad-hosted talks, with Trump signaling a 2-3 week war resolution and extending energy infrastructure strike pauses to April 6, though escalation risks via Strait of Hormuz disruptions loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$71,329,406 Vol.
March 31
<1%
April 7
8%
April 15
19%
April 30
36%
May 31
52%
June 30
64%
December 31
74%
$71,329,406 Vol.
March 31
$44,138,828 Vol.
<1%
April 7
$2,644,113 Vol.
8%
April 15
$7,455,668 Vol.
19%
April 30
$7,575,484 Vol.
36%
May 31
$2,717,432 Vol.
52%
June 30
$2,599,961 Vol.
64%
December 31
$736,586 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities sparked by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February 2026 after failed nuclear talks, trader sentiment hinges on stalled diplomacy and persistent military actions. The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal, transmitted via Pakistan on March 24—offering sanctions relief, nuclear rollback, and missile limits for a one-month truce—was dismissed by Tehran last week as "maximalist and unreasonable," prompting Iran's counterproposal amid continued airstrikes, proxy attacks, and US troop surges to the Middle East. Intermediaries like Pakistan and Egypt push for Islamabad-hosted talks, with Trump signaling a 2-3 week war resolution and extending energy infrastructure strike pauses to April 6, though escalation risks via Strait of Hormuz disruptions loom large.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$71,329,406Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities sparked by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February 2026 after failed nuclear talks, trader sentiment hinges on stalled diplomacy and persistent military actions. The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal, transmitted via Pakistan on March 24—offering sanctions relief, nuclear rollback, and missile limits for a one-month truce—was dismissed by Tehran last week as "maximalist and unreasonable," prompting Iran's counterproposal amid continued airstrikes, proxy attacks, and US troop surges to the Middle East. Intermediaries like Pakistan and Egypt push for Islamabad-hosted talks, with Trump signaling a 2-3 week war resolution and extending energy infrastructure strike pauses to April 6, though escalation risks via Strait of Hormuz disruptions loom large.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$71,329,406Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities sparked by joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February 2026 after failed nuclear talks, trader sentiment hinges on stalled diplomacy and persistent military actions. The Trump administration's 15-point ceasefire proposal, transmitted via Pakistan on March 24—offering sanctions relief, nuclear rollback, and missile limits for a one-month truce—was dismissed by Tehran last week as "maximalist and unreasonable," prompting Iran's counterproposal amid continued airstrikes, proxy attacks, and US troop surges to the Middle East. Intermediaries like Pakistan and Egypt push for Islamabad-hosted talks, with Trump signaling a 2-3 week war resolution and extending energy infrastructure strike pauses to April 6, though escalation risks via Strait of Hormuz disruptions loom large.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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