US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 40%
February 1 8.8%
January 2026 7%
February 2 5.7%
$1,214,949 Vol.
$1,214,949 Vol.
January 2026
$62,340 Vol.
7%
January 2026
$62,340 Vol.
7%
February 1
$86,047 Vol.
9%
February 1
$86,047 Vol.
9%
February 2
$41,296 Vol.
6%
February 2
$41,296 Vol.
6%
February 3
$35,426 Vol.
3%
February 3
$35,426 Vol.
3%
February 4
$42,104 Vol.
3%
February 4
$42,104 Vol.
3%
February 5
$34,114 Vol.
2%
February 5
$34,114 Vol.
2%
February 6
$52,509 Vol.
4%
February 6
$52,509 Vol.
4%
February 7
$31,693 Vol.
4%
February 7
$31,693 Vol.
4%
February 8
$32,005 Vol.
3%
February 8
$32,005 Vol.
3%
February 9
$33,890 Vol.
2%
February 9
$33,890 Vol.
2%
February 10
$31,741 Vol.
1%
February 10
$31,741 Vol.
1%
February 11
$28,429 Vol.
1%
February 11
$28,429 Vol.
1%
February 12
$32,183 Vol.
1%
February 12
$32,183 Vol.
1%
February 13
$30,563 Vol.
2%
February 13
$30,563 Vol.
2%
February 14
$39,697 Vol.
2%
February 14
$39,697 Vol.
2%
February 15
$38,064 Vol.
1%
February 15
$38,064 Vol.
1%
February 16
$36,286 Vol.
1%
February 16
$36,286 Vol.
1%
February 17
$39,082 Vol.
1%
February 17
$39,082 Vol.
1%
February 18
$36,965 Vol.
1%
February 18
$36,965 Vol.
1%
February 19
$34,471 Vol.
1%
February 19
$34,471 Vol.
1%
February 20
$33,967 Vol.
1%
February 20
$33,967 Vol.
1%
February 21
$37,670 Vol.
2%
February 21
$37,670 Vol.
2%
February 22
$39,390 Vol.
1%
February 22
$39,390 Vol.
1%
February 23
$43,074 Vol.
1%
February 23
$43,074 Vol.
1%
February 24
$39,671 Vol.
1%
February 24
$39,671 Vol.
1%
February 25
$42,026 Vol.
1%
February 25
$42,026 Vol.
1%
February 26
$40,322 Vol.
1%
February 26
$40,322 Vol.
1%
February 27
$47,498 Vol.
2%
February 27
$47,498 Vol.
2%
February 28
$46,610 Vol.
3%
February 28
$46,610 Vol.
3%
No strike by February 28
$45,816 Vol.
40%
No strike by February 28
$45,816 Vol.
40%
Rules
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 40%
February 1 8.8%
January 2026 7%
February 2 5.7%
$1,214,949 Vol.
$1,214,949 Vol.
January 2026
7%
February 1
9%
February 2
6%
February 3
3%
February 4
3%
February 5
2%
February 6
4%
February 7
4%
February 8
3%
February 9
2%
February 10
1%
February 11
1%
February 12
1%
February 13
2%
February 14
2%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
1%
February 21
2%
February 22
1%
February 23
1%
February 24
1%
February 25
1%
February 26
1%
February 27
2%
February 28
3%
No strike by February 28
40%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.