Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

Feb 28

Mar 31

No strike by February 28 79%

February 14 1.8%

February 21 1.8%

February 13 1.7%

Polymarket

$14,515,049 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$14,515,049
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Created At
Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

Feb 28

Mar 31

No strike by February 28 79%

February 14 1.8%

February 21 1.8%

February 13 1.7%

Polymarket

$14,515,049 Vol.

February 8

$956,540 Vol.

<1%

February 9

$910,020 Vol.

<1%

February 10

$959,030 Vol.

<1%

February 11

$505,571 Vol.

1%

February 12

$393,476 Vol.

1%

February 13

$457,403 Vol.

2%

February 14

$390,254 Vol.

2%

February 15

$375,236 Vol.

1%

February 16

$323,307 Vol.

1%

February 17

$342,596 Vol.

2%

February 18

$315,121 Vol.

1%

February 19

$325,852 Vol.

1%

February 20

$300,673 Vol.

2%

February 21

$282,503 Vol.

2%

February 22

$318,654 Vol.

1%

February 23

$309,346 Vol.

1%

February 24

$377,983 Vol.

1%

February 25

$386,987 Vol.

1%

February 26

$365,709 Vol.

1%

February 27

$301,173 Vol.

1%

February 28

$317,694 Vol.

2%

No strike by February 28

$463,159 Vol.

79%

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Beware of external links.