No strike by February 28 82%
February 26 3.5%
February 28 2.9%
February 27 2.8%
$38,115,192 Vol.
$38,115,192 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
February 19
$1,874,673 Vol.
<1%
February 20
$2,163,305 Vol.
<1%
February 21
$1,381,650 Vol.
1%
February 22
$1,076,047 Vol.
2%
February 23
$1,037,737 Vol.
2%
February 24
$981,572 Vol.
1%
February 25
$1,030,939 Vol.
2%
February 26
$962,610 Vol.
3%
February 27
$838,767 Vol.
3%
February 28
$832,072 Vol.
3%
No strike by February 28
$1,326,725 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Volume
$38,115,192End Date
Feb 28, 2026Created At
Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No strike by February 28 82%
February 26 3.5%
February 28 2.9%
February 27 2.8%
$38,115,192 Vol.
$38,115,192 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
February 19
$1,874,673 Vol.
<1%
February 20
$2,163,305 Vol.
<1%
February 21
$1,381,650 Vol.
1%
February 22
$1,076,047 Vol.
2%
February 23
$1,037,737 Vol.
2%
February 24
$981,572 Vol.
1%
February 25
$1,030,939 Vol.
2%
February 26
$962,610 Vol.
3%
February 27
$838,767 Vol.
3%
February 28
$832,072 Vol.
3%
No strike by February 28
$1,326,725 Vol.
82%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"US next strikes Iran on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No strike by February 28" at 82%, followed by "February 26" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "US next strikes Iran on...?" has generated $38.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "US next strikes Iran on...?," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "US next strikes Iran on...?" is "No strike by February 28" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "February 26" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "US next strikes Iran on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions