US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 48%
January 2026 11%
February 1 4.5%
February 7 4.3%
$270,881 交易量
$270,881 交易量
January 2026
$16,720 交易量
11%
January 2026
$16,720 交易量
11%
February 1
$14,489 交易量
5%
February 1
$14,489 交易量
5%
February 2
$9,543 交易量
3%
February 2
$9,543 交易量
3%
February 3
$7,911 交易量
2%
February 3
$7,911 交易量
2%
February 4
$8,918 交易量
2%
February 4
$8,918 交易量
2%
February 5
$8,869 交易量
3%
February 5
$8,869 交易量
3%
February 6
$7,767 交易量
3%
February 6
$7,767 交易量
3%
February 7
$9,660 交易量
4%
February 7
$9,660 交易量
4%
February 8
$7,365 交易量
1%
February 8
$7,365 交易量
1%
February 9
$7,265 交易量
1%
February 9
$7,265 交易量
1%
February 10
$9,019 交易量
1%
February 10
$9,019 交易量
1%
February 11
$7,303 交易量
1%
February 11
$7,303 交易量
1%
February 12
$11,654 交易量
1%
February 12
$11,654 交易量
1%
February 13
$9,678 交易量
3%
February 13
$9,678 交易量
3%
February 14
$7,807 交易量
2%
February 14
$7,807 交易量
2%
February 15
$6,663 交易量
1%
February 15
$6,663 交易量
1%
February 16
$6,560 交易量
1%
February 16
$6,560 交易量
1%
February 17
$7,830 交易量
1%
February 17
$7,830 交易量
1%
February 18
$6,843 交易量
1%
February 18
$6,843 交易量
1%
February 19
$7,116 交易量
1%
February 19
$7,116 交易量
1%
February 20
$6,320 交易量
1%
February 20
$6,320 交易量
1%
February 21
$7,825 交易量
2%
February 21
$7,825 交易量
2%
February 22
$8,084 交易量
1%
February 22
$8,084 交易量
1%
February 23
$6,266 交易量
1%
February 23
$6,266 交易量
1%
February 24
$7,020 交易量
1%
February 24
$7,020 交易量
1%
February 25
$15,036 交易量
2%
February 25
$15,036 交易量
2%
February 26
$10,132 交易量
1%
February 26
$10,132 交易量
1%
February 27
$11,761 交易量
2%
February 27
$11,761 交易量
2%
February 28
$8,672 交易量
3%
February 28
$8,672 交易量
3%
No strike by February 28
$10,784 交易量
48%
No strike by February 28
$10,784 交易量
48%
规则
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
创建于： Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 48%
January 2026 11%
February 1 4.5%
February 7 4.3%
$270,881 交易量
$270,881 交易量
January 2026
11%
February 1
5%
February 2
3%
February 3
2%
February 4
2%
February 5
3%
February 6
3%
February 7
4%
February 8
1%
February 9
1%
February 10
1%
February 11
1%
February 12
1%
February 13
3%
February 14
2%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
1%
February 21
2%
February 22
1%
February 23
1%
February 24
1%
February 25
2%
February 26
1%
February 27
2%
February 28
3%
No strike by February 28
48%
关于
Resolver
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