Market icon
世界·外交政策

伊朗是否会在……之前关闭霍尔木兹海峡？

Market icon
世界·外交政策

伊朗是否会在……之前关闭霍尔木兹海峡？

Ended: Dec 31

Ended: Dec 31

$5,772,413 交易量

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$5,772,413 交易量

Polymarket

1月31日

$293,594 交易量

否

3月31日

$0 交易量

是

6月30日

$0 交易量

是

12月31日

$5,478,819 交易量

是

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"伊朗是否会在……之前关闭霍尔木兹海峡？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"3月31日"，概率为 100%，其次是"6月30日"，概率为 100%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"伊朗是否会在……之前关闭霍尔木兹海峡？"已产生 $5.8 million 的总交易量（自Nov 5, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"伊朗是否会在……之前关闭霍尔木兹海峡？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"伊朗是否会在……之前关闭霍尔木兹海峡？"的当前领先者是"3月31日"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"6月30日"，概率为 100%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"伊朗是否会在……之前关闭霍尔木兹海峡？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。