GroenLinks-Labour Party (GL-PvdA) commands near-certain trader consensus at 100% implied probability to win Rotterdam's municipal election, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Livable Rotterdam (LR) and dominant seat projections in recent surveys from agencies like Verian and Ipsos I&O. Key factors include GL-PvdA's strong urban voter base on housing, sustainability, and social services amid Rotterdam's demographic shifts, bolstered by incumbent coalition momentum and LR's stagnant support since 2022. Historical precedents show front-runners over 25 points ahead rarely lose, reflecting trader confidence in the wisdom of crowds. Realistic challenges include a surprise LR turnout surge among working-class voters or a late GL-PvdA scandal, though no such catalysts have emerged ahead of election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于绿党–工党（GL–PvdA） 100.0%
宜居鹿特丹党（LR） <1%
50PLUS <1%
Volt <1%
$6,160 交易量
$6,160 交易量
Mar 18, 2026
宜居鹿特丹党（LR）
否
50PLUS
否
Volt
否
动物保护党（PvdD）
否
BIJ1
否
基督教民主呼吁党 (CDA)
否
社会党（SP）
否
民主66（D66）
否
Denk（Denk）
否
绿党–工党（GL–PvdA）
是
民主论坛（FvD）
否
自由民主人民党（VVD）
否
绿党–工党（GL–PvdA） 100.0%
宜居鹿特丹党（LR） <1%
50PLUS <1%
Volt <1%
$6,160 交易量
$6,160 交易量
Mar 18, 2026
宜居鹿特丹党（LR）
$0 交易量
否
50PLUS
$0 交易量
否
Volt
$0 交易量
否
动物保护党（PvdD）
$663 交易量
否
BIJ1
$0 交易量
否
基督教民主呼吁党 (CDA)
$0 交易量
否
社会党（SP）
$0 交易量
否
民主66（D66）
$0 交易量
否
Denk（Denk）
$0 交易量
否
绿党–工党（GL–PvdA）
$5,497 交易量
是
民主论坛（FvD）
$0 交易量
否
自由民主人民党（VVD）
$0 交易量
否
Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).
Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).
市场开放时间： Mar 2, 2026, 7:13 PM ET
交易量
$6,160结束日期
Mar 18, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).
交易量
$6,160结束日期
Mar 18, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...GroenLinks-Labour Party (GL-PvdA) commands near-certain trader consensus at 100% implied probability to win Rotterdam's municipal election, driven by consistent double-digit polling leads over Livable Rotterdam (LR) and dominant seat projections in recent surveys from agencies like Verian and Ipsos I&O. Key factors include GL-PvdA's strong urban voter base on housing, sustainability, and social services amid Rotterdam's demographic shifts, bolstered by incumbent coalition momentum and LR's stagnant support since 2022. Historical precedents show front-runners over 25 points ahead rarely lose, reflecting trader confidence in the wisdom of crowds. Realistic challenges include a surprise LR turnout surge among working-class voters or a late GL-PvdA scandal, though no such catalysts have emerged ahead of election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题