Trump administration's indirect nuclear negotiations with Iran, including recent Geneva rounds, have yielded partial understandings on non-proliferation but stalled over uranium enrichment caps, facility dismantlement, and missile limits, with Iran rejecting U.S. maximalist demands as reported in late February and March 2026 talks. President Trump's April 1 statements signaling a potential U.S. military withdrawal from Iran within weeks—deal or no deal—underscore diplomacy's secondary role amid ongoing regional conflict, eroding prospects for agreement before year-end. Trader consensus at 55.5% on "No" reflects this impasse, Iran's modest concessions, allied divisions, and historical JCPOA revival failures, though surprise breakthroughs remain possible ahead of escalation deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$455,273 Vol.
$455,273 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$455,273 Vol.
$455,273 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trump administration's indirect nuclear negotiations with Iran, including recent Geneva rounds, have yielded partial understandings on non-proliferation but stalled over uranium enrichment caps, facility dismantlement, and missile limits, with Iran rejecting U.S. maximalist demands as reported in late February and March 2026 talks. President Trump's April 1 statements signaling a potential U.S. military withdrawal from Iran within weeks—deal or no deal—underscore diplomacy's secondary role amid ongoing regional conflict, eroding prospects for agreement before year-end. Trader consensus at 55.5% on "No" reflects this impasse, Iran's modest concessions, allied divisions, and historical JCPOA revival failures, though surprise breakthroughs remain possible ahead of escalation deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$455,273End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trump administration's indirect nuclear negotiations with Iran, including recent Geneva rounds, have yielded partial understandings on non-proliferation but stalled over uranium enrichment caps, facility dismantlement, and missile limits, with Iran rejecting U.S. maximalist demands as reported in late February and March 2026 talks. President Trump's April 1 statements signaling a potential U.S. military withdrawal from Iran within weeks—deal or no deal—underscore diplomacy's secondary role amid ongoing regional conflict, eroding prospects for agreement before year-end. Trader consensus at 55.5% on "No" reflects this impasse, Iran's modest concessions, allied divisions, and historical JCPOA revival failures, though surprise breakthroughs remain possible ahead of escalation deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$455,273End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration's indirect nuclear negotiations with Iran, including recent Geneva rounds, have yielded partial understandings on non-proliferation but stalled over uranium enrichment caps, facility dismantlement, and missile limits, with Iran rejecting U.S. maximalist demands as reported in late February and March 2026 talks. President Trump's April 1 statements signaling a potential U.S. military withdrawal from Iran within weeks—deal or no deal—underscore diplomacy's secondary role amid ongoing regional conflict, eroding prospects for agreement before year-end. Trader consensus at 55.5% on "No" reflects this impasse, Iran's modest concessions, allied divisions, and historical JCPOA revival failures, though surprise breakthroughs remain possible ahead of escalation deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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