The Trump administration's surge of over 50,000 US troops to the Middle East—including thousands of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and Special Operations forces arriving in the past week—signals preparation for potential ground operations in Iran amid a month-long war marked by US-Israel airstrikes and Iranian missile retaliation. Iran rejected US ceasefire proposals on March 25, launching further attacks on Israel and Gulf allies, while President Trump claimed on March 31 the conflict could end in two to three weeks without full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. No invasion decision has been announced, but Pentagon reports indicate readiness for weeks-long ground actions, sustaining trader bets on escalation amid 13 US fatalities and rising casualties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$68,619,371 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
56%
December 31
64%
$68,619,371 Vol.
March 31
$46,078,548 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$12,973,261 Vol.
56%
December 31
$7,578,741 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.The Trump administration's surge of over 50,000 US troops to the Middle East—including thousands of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and Special Operations forces arriving in the past week—signals preparation for potential ground operations in Iran amid a month-long war marked by US-Israel airstrikes and Iranian missile retaliation. Iran rejected US ceasefire proposals on March 25, launching further attacks on Israel and Gulf allies, while President Trump claimed on March 31 the conflict could end in two to three weeks without full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. No invasion decision has been announced, but Pentagon reports indicate readiness for weeks-long ground actions, sustaining trader bets on escalation amid 13 US fatalities and rising casualties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$68,619,371Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.The Trump administration's surge of over 50,000 US troops to the Middle East—including thousands of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and Special Operations forces arriving in the past week—signals preparation for potential ground operations in Iran amid a month-long war marked by US-Israel airstrikes and Iranian missile retaliation. Iran rejected US ceasefire proposals on March 25, launching further attacks on Israel and Gulf allies, while President Trump claimed on March 31 the conflict could end in two to three weeks without full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. No invasion decision has been announced, but Pentagon reports indicate readiness for weeks-long ground actions, sustaining trader bets on escalation amid 13 US fatalities and rising casualties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$68,619,371Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
The Trump administration's surge of over 50,000 US troops to the Middle East—including thousands of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and Special Operations forces arriving in the past week—signals preparation for potential ground operations in Iran amid a month-long war marked by US-Israel airstrikes and Iranian missile retaliation. Iran rejected US ceasefire proposals on March 25, launching further attacks on Israel and Gulf allies, while President Trump claimed on March 31 the conflict could end in two to three weeks without full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. No invasion decision has been announced, but Pentagon reports indicate readiness for weeks-long ground actions, sustaining trader bets on escalation amid 13 US fatalities and rising casualties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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