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Politics·Primaries

TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner

Colin Allred 70%

Julie Johnson 31%

Carlos Quintanilla <1%

Zeeshan Hafeez <1%

Polymarket

$54,461 Vol.

Colin Allred 70%

Julie Johnson 31%

Carlos Quintanilla <1%

Zeeshan Hafeez <1%

Polymarket

$54,461 Vol.

Colin Allred

$27,105 Vol.

70%

Julie Johnson

$24,677 Vol.

31%

Carlos Quintanilla

$2,679 Vol.

<1%

Zeeshan Hafeez

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Texas' solidly Democratic 33rd Congressional District, former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability to win the May 26 Democratic primary runoff against incumbent Rep. Julie Johnson (30.5%), following Allred's dominant March 3 primary performance of 44% to Johnson's 33.2%, with challengers Carlos Quintanilla (14.3%) and Zeeshan Hafeez (8.5%) eliminated. Allred's edge stems from superior fundraising—$5.4 million raised versus Johnson's $1.5 million as of February—name recognition from his prior TX-32 service and recent Senate bid, and strong Dallas County turnout, outweighing Johnson's institutional endorsements from nearly 50 House Democrats and LGBTQ+ PACs. The safe blue district ensures the nominee's general election path, with no major post-primary shifts reported.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$54,461
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Texas' solidly Democratic 33rd Congressional District, former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability to win the May 26 Democratic primary runoff against incumbent Rep. Julie Johnson (30.5%), following Allred's dominant March 3 primary performance of 44% to Johnson's 33.2%, with challengers Carlos Quintanilla (14.3%) and Zeeshan Hafeez (8.5%) eliminated. Allred's edge stems from superior fundraising—$5.4 million raised versus Johnson's $1.5 million as of February—name recognition from his prior TX-32 service and recent Senate bid, and strong Dallas County turnout, outweighing Johnson's institutional endorsements from nearly 50 House Democrats and LGBTQ+ PACs. The safe blue district ensures the nominee's general election path, with no major post-primary shifts reported.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$54,461
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Colin Allred" at 70%, followed by "Julie Johnson" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $54.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Colin Allred" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Julie Johnson" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.