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Politics·Primaries

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Ben McAdams 74%

Nate Blouin 22%

Kathleen Riebe <1%

Brian King <1%

Polymarket

$24,991 Vol.

Ben McAdams 74%

Nate Blouin 22%

Kathleen Riebe <1%

Brian King <1%

Polymarket

$24,991 Vol.

Ben McAdams

$6,964 Vol.

74%

Nate Blouin

$3,717 Vol.

22%

Kathleen Riebe

$1,305 Vol.

1%

Brian King

$817 Vol.

<1%

Jenny Wilson

$1,111 Vol.

<1%

Erin Mendenhall

$4,197 Vol.

<1%

Luz Escamilla

$5,536 Vol.

<1%

Caroline Gleich

$668 Vol.

<1%

Kael Weston

$677 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams holds a strong lead in trader consensus at 74% implied probability for the UT-01 Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by State Sen. Kathleen Riebe's endorsement and campaign advisory role after her withdrawal six days ago, consolidating moderate support in the newly redrawn blue-leaning district. State Sen. Nate Blouin's 21.5% share reflects backlash from resurfaced decade-old social media posts denigrating Latter-day Saints, prompting sharper attacks from McAdams and shifting race dynamics per recent analyses. A late-March Data for Progress poll showed them nearly tied among informed voters, but fundraising edges McAdams while progressives back Blouin ahead of the April 25 state convention. Other candidates trail amid the two-way contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$24,991
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams holds a strong lead in trader consensus at 74% implied probability for the UT-01 Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by State Sen. Kathleen Riebe's endorsement and campaign advisory role after her withdrawal six days ago, consolidating moderate support in the newly redrawn blue-leaning district. State Sen. Nate Blouin's 21.5% share reflects backlash from resurfaced decade-old social media posts denigrating Latter-day Saints, prompting sharper attacks from McAdams and shifting race dynamics per recent analyses. A late-March Data for Progress poll showed them nearly tied among informed voters, but fundraising edges McAdams while progressives back Blouin ahead of the April 25 state convention. Other candidates trail amid the two-way contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$24,991
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ben McAdams" at 74%, followed by "Nate Blouin" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $25K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Ben McAdams" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nate Blouin" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.