Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the narrow frontrunner at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 37.5% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 24.3%, amid Donald Trump's constitutional two-term limit barring a third run. RFK Jr.'s surge follows his high-profile HHS secretary role and crossover appeal from the 2024 independent campaign, with a March report noting his odds hitting 49% despite Vance's dominance in CPAC (53%) and Yale Youth (43%) straw polls. Rubio gains from recent diplomatic visibility, including a White House briefing and Venezuela operations, while Vance faces scrutiny over Iran negotiations and Hungary setbacks. The 2026 midterms loom as a key test for early positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Mid‑term election outlook improves for Rubio‑aligned donors, prompting a fresh bump in his market
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%6%
Mid‑term election outlook improves for Rubio‑aligned donors, prompting a fresh bump in his market
Salon reports that despite ongoing speculation, Trump Jr.
Donald Trump Jr. rises to 4%2%
has “no concrete plans” and is focusing on business ventures, reinforcing the market’s view that his nomination odds remain low
The Guardian publishes an opinion piece questioning whether Carlson is “eyeing a 2028 presidential run,” noting his recent “coy” stance and growing media profile – The
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
The Guardian publishes an opinion piece questioning whether Carlson is “eyeing a 2028 presidential run,” noting his recent “coy” stance and growing media profile – The high‑visibility article renewed mainstream attention on Carlson’s potential candidacy, driving the latest
Rubio hints at possible 2028 ambitions during a Vanity Fair interview, saying he will “support” Vance if he runs, which steadies his odds after earlier volatility
Marco Rubio dips to 19%3%
Rubio hints at possible 2028 ambitions during a Vanity Fair interview, saying he will “support” Vance if he runs, which steadies his odds after earlier volatility
A Center Square Voters’ Voice poll shows only 24% of Republicans would back Trump Jr.
Donald Trump Jr. rises to 2%1%
for 2028, while JD Vance leads with 38%; the poll’s release pushes the
Politico reports Rubio privately backs JD Vance and would serve as his running mate, reinforcing Rubio’s willingness to step aside and causing a short‑term dip before the market
Marco Rubio drops to 22%6%
Politico reports Rubio privately backs JD Vance and would serve as his running mate, reinforcing Rubio’s willingness to step aside and causing a short‑term dip before the market corrected upward
Former President Trump states in a CBS interview that Vance is “very capable” but not the “heir apparent,” tempering expectations for Vance’s nomination prospects
J.D. Vance dips to 37%1%
Former President Trump states in a CBS interview that Vance is “very capable” but not the “heir apparent,” tempering expectations for Vance’s nomination prospects
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floats a “Tucker Carlson for President 2028” campaign, urging the GOP base to rally behind him – The Axios story sparked a brief rally among Carlson’s
Tucker Carlson rises to 4%2%
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene floats a “Tucker Carlson for President 2028” campaign, urging the GOP base to rally behind him – The Axios story sparked a brief rally among Carlson’s supporters, lifting the
Donald Trump Jr. publicly refutes a rumor that he is considering a 2028 presidential run, calling the story “false” and endorsing JD Vance instead, causing the market to drop to
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 1%1%
Donald Trump Jr. publicly refutes a rumor that he is considering a 2028 presidential run, calling the story “false” and endorsing JD Vance instead, causing the market to drop to its lowest level of the period
Octagon AI notes a “surge in support and market interest” for Rubio tied to his perceived involvement in the Iran conflict and growing donor buzz
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%12%
Octagon AI notes a “surge in support and market interest” for Rubio tied to his perceived involvement in the Iran conflict and growing donor buzz
Vance tells NBC’s Meet the Press he is “focused on his White House duties” and dismisses speculation about a 2028 run, causing the market to pull back
J.D. Vance drops to 42%5%
Vance tells NBC’s Meet the Press he is “focused on his White House duties” and dismisses speculation about a 2028 run, causing the market to pull back
Rubio’s first overseas trip as Secretary of State – a flight from Subang Air Base, Kuala Lumpur, spotlighting his foreign‑policy profile – sparks a modest rise in his nomination
Marco Rubio rises to 16%3%
Rubio’s first overseas trip as Secretary of State – a flight from Subang Air Base, Kuala Lumpur, spotlighting his foreign‑policy profile – sparks a modest rise in his nomination odds
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin publicly backs JD Vance for 2028, citing Rubio’s support for Vance and underscoring Rubio’s decision to stay out
Marco Rubio rises to 13%3%
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin publicly backs JD Vance for 2028, citing Rubio’s support for Vance and underscoring Rubio’s decision to stay out
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses Vance for president at the AmericaFest summit, reviving grassroots momentum and lifting the
J.D. Vance rises to 55%3%
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses Vance for president at the AmericaFest summit, reviving grassroots momentum and lifting the
Marco Rubio says he will not run for president in 2028 if Vice President JD Vance seeks the GOP nomination
Marco Rubio dips to 8%3%
Marco Rubio says he will not run for president in 2028 if Vice President JD Vance seeks the GOP nomination
U.S. Supreme Court hears a case questioning whether Vance’s ambiguous statements about a 2028 run render his earlier campaign‑finance lawsuit moot, raising doubts about his
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
U.S. Supreme Court hears a case questioning whether Vance’s ambiguous statements about a 2028 run render his earlier campaign‑finance lawsuit moot, raising doubts about his candidacy
In a Cabinet meeting Trump publicly declares “It’s not going to be me” and names Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as likely successors, causing a sharp
Donald Trump drops to 4%8%
In a Cabinet meeting Trump publicly declares “It’s not going to be me” and names Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as likely successors, causing a sharp sell‑off in his nomination odds
Carlson admits in a televised interview he is “thinking about” a 2028 presidential run and will discuss it with former President Trump after the midterms – The interview, cited in
Tucker Carlson dips to 3%1%
Carlson admits in a televised interview he is “thinking about” a 2028 presidential run and will discuss it with former President Trump after the midterms – The interview, cited in the 2028 election Wikipedia entry, marked the first explicit hint from Carlson that a campaign was possible, prompting a modest drop as analysts reassessed his viability.
The New York Times notes constitutional limits and a Republican resolution to block a third term, further cementing market consensus that Trump will not be the nominee
Donald Trump dips to 2%1%
The New York Times notes constitutional limits and a Republican resolution to block a third term, further cementing market consensus that Trump will not be the nominee
USA Today reports Trump says he would “love to do it” if asked about a 2028 vice‑presidential slot but again declines to rule out a presidential run, reinforcing the downward trend
Donald Trump dips to 3%1%
USA Today reports Trump says he would “love to do it” if asked about a 2028 vice‑presidential slot but again declines to rule out a presidential run, reinforcing the downward trend
Sen. Ted Cruz publicly condemns Carlson for a controversial interview with white‑nationalist Nick Fuentes, calling him “a coward” and “complicit in evil” – Cruz’s attack, reported
Tucker Carlson dips to 2%1%
Sen. Ted Cruz publicly condemns Carlson for a controversial interview with white‑nationalist Nick Fuentes, calling him “a coward” and “complicit in evil” – Cruz’s attack, reported by Axios, intensified intra‑party criticism of Carlson and coincided with the market’s trough in late October/early November.
President Donald Trump posts an AI‑generated “TRUMP 2028, YES!” image on Truth Social, reigniting talk of a 2028 Trump ticket and briefly lifting Trump Jr.’s perceived chances
President Donald Trump posts an AI‑generated “TRUMP 2028, YES!” image on Truth Social, reigniting talk of a 2028 Trump ticket and briefly lifting Trump Jr.’s perceived chances before the market corrected
Trump tells USA Today he would like a third term but “is unlikely to pursue” it, keeping the odds elevated after a brief dip
Donald Trump dips to 12%3%
Trump tells USA Today he would like a third term but “is unlikely to pursue” it, keeping the odds elevated after a brief dip
Elon Musk publicly praises Vance’s potential ticket after Trump’s vice‑presidential pick, boosting Vance’s perceived viability as the 2028 nominee
J.D. Vance dips to 54%1%
Elon Musk publicly praises Vance’s potential ticket after Trump’s vice‑presidential pick, boosting Vance’s perceived viability as the 2028 nominee
Donald Trump Jr. appears on the cover of The Independent “The Trump Shadow” piece speculating he could be the 2028 heir‑apparent, sparking a brief
Donald Trump Jr. surges to 50%15%
Donald Trump Jr. appears on the cover of The Independent “The Trump Shadow” piece speculating he could be the 2028 heir‑apparent, sparking a brief
Vance posts a cryptic Bluesky message hinting at a 2028 presidential announcement, sparking a surge of speculation and early‑stage support
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vance posts a cryptic Bluesky message hinting at a 2028 presidential announcement, sparking a surge of speculation and early‑stage support
Trump‑branded “Trump 2028” hats appear in stores, sparking speculation that he might seek a third term and pushing the market up to its July 2025 peak
Donald Trump jumps to 15%10%
Trump‑branded “Trump 2028” hats appear in stores, sparking speculation that he might seek a third term and pushing the market up to its July 2025 peak
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