Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and defense sites starting February 28, 2026, Iran retaliated with drone and missile barrages targeting Gulf states, including confirmed strikes on UAE's Al Minhad Air Base as reported by the Australian Department of Defence. These actions, occurring in March, drove trader consensus to near-certainty on UAE as the outcome, meeting the market's criteria for aerial weapons impacting sovereign territory by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8, halting direct strikes after 40 days of exchanges, though Iran claims violations via Israeli operations in Lebanon. No additional qualifying Iranian actions post-deadline; market awaits final resolution amid minor disputes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$8,701,230 거래량
2026.03.07
Israel
Yes
Jordan
Yes
Saudi Arabia
Yes
Bahrain
Yes
UAE
Yes
Kuwait
Yes
Turkey
No
Cyprus
No
Jordan
Yes
Qatar
Yes
Iraq
Yes
Afghanistan
No
Pakistan
No
Yemen
No
Oman
Yes
Syria
No
Lebanon
Yes
Jordan
Yes
Saudi Arabia
Yes
Israel
Yes
Bahrain
Yes
UAE
Yes
Kuwait
Yes
India
No
Qatar
Yes
Iraq
Yes
Oman
No
Spain
No
France
No
Germany
No
Poland
No
Italy
No
Hungary
No
Ukraine
No
Azerbaijan
No
Armenia
No
Georgia
No
UK
No
$8,701,230 거래량
Israel
$18,659 거래량
Yes
Jordan
$0 거래량
Yes
Saudi Arabia
$153,049 거래량
Yes
Bahrain
$0 거래량
Yes
UAE
$0 거래량
Yes
Kuwait
$0 거래량
Yes
Turkey
$533,738 거래량
No
Cyprus
$1,342,896 거래량
No
Jordan
$0 거래량
Yes
Qatar
$76,465 거래량
Yes
Iraq
$0 거래량
Yes
Afghanistan
$84,716 거래량
No
Pakistan
$77,347 거래량
No
Yemen
$100,231 거래량
No
Oman
$108,506 거래량
Yes
Syria
$370,376 거래량
No
Lebanon
$0 거래량
Yes
Jordan
$26,965 거래량
Yes
Saudi Arabia
$0 거래량
Yes
Israel
$4,761 거래량
Yes
Bahrain
$394,867 거래량
Yes
UAE
$3,156,605 거래량
Yes
Kuwait
$0 거래량
Yes
India
$119,261 거래량
No
Qatar
$8,850 거래량
Yes
Iraq
$41,042 거래량
Yes
Oman
$1,574,876 거래량
No
Spain
$89,023 거래량
No
France
$6,514 거래량
No
Germany
$7,786 거래량
No
Poland
$283,744 거래량
No
Italy
$2,680 거래량
No
Hungary
$2,708 거래량
No
Ukraine
$7,389 거래량
No
Azerbaijan
$44,574 거래량
No
Armenia
$2,703 거래량
No
Georgia
$1,699 거래량
No
UK
$59,199 거래량
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and defense sites starting February 28, 2026, Iran retaliated with drone and missile barrages targeting Gulf states, including confirmed strikes on UAE's Al Minhad Air Base as reported by the Australian Department of Defence. These actions, occurring in March, drove trader consensus to near-certainty on UAE as the outcome, meeting the market's criteria for aerial weapons impacting sovereign territory by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8, halting direct strikes after 40 days of exchanges, though Iran claims violations via Israeli operations in Lebanon. No additional qualifying Iranian actions post-deadline; market awaits final resolution amid minor disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
마켓 개설일: Feb 28, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
거래량
$8,701,230종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: Yes
이의 없음
최종 결과: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and defense sites starting February 28, 2026, Iran retaliated with drone and missile barrages targeting Gulf states, including confirmed strikes on UAE's Al Minhad Air Base as reported by the Australian Department of Defence. These actions, occurring in March, drove trader consensus to near-certainty on UAE as the outcome, meeting the market's criteria for aerial weapons impacting sovereign territory by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8, halting direct strikes after 40 days of exchanges, though Iran claims violations via Israeli operations in Lebanon. No additional qualifying Iranian actions post-deadline; market awaits final resolution amid minor disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
거래량
$8,701,230종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...결과 제안됨: Yes
이의 없음
최종 결과: Yes
Amid escalating US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and defense sites starting February 28, 2026, Iran retaliated with drone and missile barrages targeting Gulf states, including confirmed strikes on UAE's Al Minhad Air Base as reported by the Australian Department of Defence. These actions, occurring in March, drove trader consensus to near-certainty on UAE as the outcome, meeting the market's criteria for aerial weapons impacting sovereign territory by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 8, halting direct strikes after 40 days of exchanges, though Iran claims violations via Israeli operations in Lebanon. No additional qualifying Iranian actions post-deadline; market awaits final resolution amid minor disputes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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