2월 28일까지 공격 없음 83%
2월 22일 3.1%
2월 21일 1.9%
2월 28일 1.9%
$29,893,050 Vol.
$29,893,050 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
2월 15일
$906,380 Vol.
<1%
2월 16일
$856,846 Vol.
<1%
2월 17일
$750,525 Vol.
1%
2월 18일
$668,583 Vol.
1%
2월 19일
$656,116 Vol.
2%
2월 20일
$693,836 Vol.
2%
2월 21일
$638,139 Vol.
2%
2월 22일
$568,504 Vol.
3%
2월 23일
$569,939 Vol.
1%
2월 24일
$607,976 Vol.
1%
2월 25일
$636,591 Vol.
1%
2월 26일
$569,021 Vol.
1%
2월 27일
$496,671 Vol.
2%
2월 28일
$524,100 Vol.
2%
2월 28일까지 공격 없음
$929,643 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
생성일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
볼륨
$29,893,050종료일
Feb 28, 2026생성일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...2월 28일까지 공격 없음 83%
2월 22일 3.1%
2월 21일 1.9%
2월 28일 1.9%
$29,893,050 Vol.
$29,893,050 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
2월 15일
$906,380 Vol.
<1%
2월 16일
$856,846 Vol.
<1%
2월 17일
$750,525 Vol.
1%
2월 18일
$668,583 Vol.
1%
2월 19일
$656,116 Vol.
2%
2월 20일
$693,836 Vol.
2%
2월 21일
$638,139 Vol.
2%
2월 22일
$568,504 Vol.
3%
2월 23일
$569,939 Vol.
1%
2월 24일
$607,976 Vol.
1%
2월 25일
$636,591 Vol.
1%
2월 26일
$569,021 Vol.
1%
2월 27일
$496,671 Vol.
2%
2월 28일
$524,100 Vol.
2%
2월 28일까지 공격 없음
$929,643 Vol.
83%
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