Climate &amp; Science

>$1.2T

91%

Yes91%No9%

$1M Vol.

NCAA Tournament

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Other

46%

46%

$4M Vol.

March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

>1.29ºC

60%

Yes60%No40%

1.25–1.29ºC

27%

Yes27%No73%

$238K Vol.

Monthly

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

45%

30%

Yes30%No70%

$2M Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

1T+

96%

No IPO before 2028

Yes3%No97%

$3M Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16

32%

Yes32%No68%

11–13

23%

Yes23%No77%

$1M Vol.

Daily

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Morgan Stanley

45%

Goldman Sachs

28%

Yes28%No72%

$1M Vol.

Human moon landing in 2026?

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑2k

99%

↑3k

88%

Yes88%No12%

$8M Vol.

Monthly

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

2.0T+

46%

1.8T–2.0T

21%

Yes21%No79%

$670K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

30%

chance

Yes

$194K Vol.

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

4th or lower

99%

1st hottest

Yes1%No99%

$282K Vol.

Monthly

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

44%

Yes44%No56%

35%

Yes35%No65%

$679K Vol.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$176K Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

86%

Yes86%No14%

Yes9%No91%

$2M Vol.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

chance

Yes

$532K Vol.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX

90%

Yes90%No10%

Anthropic

Yes4%No96%

$2M Vol.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

$231K Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$38K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?

chance

Yes

$12K Vol.

Monthly

All

Climate & Science

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

>$1T

96%

>$1.2T

91%

Yes91%No9%

$1M Vol.

NCAA Tournament

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Other

46%

46%

$4M Vol.

March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

>1.29ºC

60%

Yes60%No40%

1.25–1.29ºC

27%

Yes27%No73%

$238K Vol.

Monthly

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

45%

30%

Yes30%No70%

$2M Vol.

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

1T+

96%

No IPO before 2028

Yes3%No97%

$3M Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16

32%

Yes32%No68%

11–13

23%

Yes23%No77%

$1M Vol.

Daily

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Morgan Stanley

45%

Goldman Sachs

28%

Yes28%No72%

$1M Vol.

Human moon landing in 2026?

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑2k

99%

↑3k

88%

Yes88%No12%

$8M Vol.

Monthly

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

2.0T+

46%

1.8T–2.0T

21%

Yes21%No79%

$670K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

30%

chance

Yes

$194K Vol.

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

4th or lower

99%