Current mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic data from NOAA and USGS support the market-implied 74% probability for No on a major natural disaster occurring by year-end. ENSO-neutral conditions prevail with no strong steering patterns favoring intense hurricanes or clustered seismic events, while global temperatures and fault activity remain near historical baselines rather than elevated extremes. Developing El Niño forecasts introduce some uncertainty for later intensification, yet model consensus shows typical probabilities for category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes without the compounding factors that have driven past outliers. Traders appear to weigh these stable indicators heavily against rare high-impact thresholds, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and USGS monitoring reports as key variables that could shift sentiment if new observations reveal atypical clustering or rapid intensification.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$218,963 거래량
$218,963 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$218,963 거래량
$218,963 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic data from NOAA and USGS support the market-implied 74% probability for No on a major natural disaster occurring by year-end. ENSO-neutral conditions prevail with no strong steering patterns favoring intense hurricanes or clustered seismic events, while global temperatures and fault activity remain near historical baselines rather than elevated extremes. Developing El Niño forecasts introduce some uncertainty for later intensification, yet model consensus shows typical probabilities for category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes without the compounding factors that have driven past outliers. Traders appear to weigh these stable indicators heavily against rare high-impact thresholds, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and USGS monitoring reports as key variables that could shift sentiment if new observations reveal atypical clustering or rapid intensification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$218,963종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic data from NOAA and USGS support the market-implied 74% probability for No on a major natural disaster occurring by year-end. ENSO-neutral conditions prevail with no strong steering patterns favoring intense hurricanes or clustered seismic events, while global temperatures and fault activity remain near historical baselines rather than elevated extremes. Developing El Niño forecasts introduce some uncertainty for later intensification, yet model consensus shows typical probabilities for category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes without the compounding factors that have driven past outliers. Traders appear to weigh these stable indicators heavily against rare high-impact thresholds, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and USGS monitoring reports as key variables that could shift sentiment if new observations reveal atypical clustering or rapid intensification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
거래량
$218,963종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic data from NOAA and USGS support the market-implied 74% probability for No on a major natural disaster occurring by year-end. ENSO-neutral conditions prevail with no strong steering patterns favoring intense hurricanes or clustered seismic events, while global temperatures and fault activity remain near historical baselines rather than elevated extremes. Developing El Niño forecasts introduce some uncertainty for later intensification, yet model consensus shows typical probabilities for category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes without the compounding factors that have driven past outliers. Traders appear to weigh these stable indicators heavily against rare high-impact thresholds, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and USGS monitoring reports as key variables that could shift sentiment if new observations reveal atypical clustering or rapid intensification.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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