Traders assign a 72.5% implied probability to “No” on a natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution criteria—earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater and volcanic eruptions of VEI 6 or higher—remain statistically rare. USGS seismic records show only a handful of 9.0+ quakes in the past century, with the most recent in 2011, while Smithsonian volcano data indicate VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. No such events have occurred through May 2026, and current global monitoring networks, including real-time USGS and Smithsonian alerts, show no elevated seismic or magmatic activity approaching these thresholds. Seasonal factors such as typical tectonic strain accumulation rates and the absence of major subduction-zone precursors further support the current market-implied odds, though an unexpected large-magnitude rupture or caldera unrest could still shift consensus before year-end.