Trader consensus implies an 84.5% probability of no megaquake—M8.0 or higher on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, 2026, per USGS data, as global seismic catalogs show routine activity with no M8+ events since late 2025 and the largest 2026 quake at M7.5 near Tonga in March. The April 20 M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan, briefly prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from a 0.1% baseline due to stress changes, but that heightened-risk window passed without escalation or aftershocks signaling rupture. USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or fault slip acceleration on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra, aligning with the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes despite a historical global rate of about one M8+ annually. Watch USGS real-time feeds for shifts over the remaining seven weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
예
$64,357 거래량
$64,357 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$64,357 거래량
$64,357 거래량
2026.06.30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies an 84.5% probability of no megaquake—M8.0 or higher on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, 2026, per USGS data, as global seismic catalogs show routine activity with no M8+ events since late 2025 and the largest 2026 quake at M7.5 near Tonga in March. The April 20 M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan, briefly prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from a 0.1% baseline due to stress changes, but that heightened-risk window passed without escalation or aftershocks signaling rupture. USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or fault slip acceleration on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra, aligning with the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes despite a historical global rate of about one M8+ annually. Watch USGS real-time feeds for shifts over the remaining seven weeks.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
거래량
$64,357종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies an 84.5% probability of no megaquake—M8.0 or higher on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, 2026, per USGS data, as global seismic catalogs show routine activity with no M8+ events since late 2025 and the largest 2026 quake at M7.5 near Tonga in March. The April 20 M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan, briefly prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from a 0.1% baseline due to stress changes, but that heightened-risk window passed without escalation or aftershocks signaling rupture. USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or fault slip acceleration on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra, aligning with the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes despite a historical global rate of about one M8+ annually. Watch USGS real-time feeds for shifts over the remaining seven weeks.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$64,357종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 84.5% probability of no megaquake—M8.0 or higher on the moment magnitude scale—by June 30, 2026, per USGS data, as global seismic catalogs show routine activity with no M8+ events since late 2025 and the largest 2026 quake at M7.5 near Tonga in March. The April 20 M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan, briefly prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory elevating Nankai Trough megaquake odds to 1% from a 0.1% baseline due to stress changes, but that heightened-risk window passed without escalation or aftershocks signaling rupture. USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or fault slip acceleration on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra, aligning with the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes despite a historical global rate of about one M8+ annually. Watch USGS real-time feeds for shifts over the remaining seven weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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