The short resolution window through June 30 underpins the 88% market-implied probability against a magnitude 8.0 or greater event, consistent with USGS historical records showing roughly 1–2 such megaquakes annually worldwide. No subduction zone currently exhibits elevated seismic signals or aftershock sequences capable of triggering a larger rupture, and recent monitoring reports only moderate activity at magnitudes 6.0 or below. Long-term probabilistic models highlight recurrence intervals of decades to centuries in high-risk regions like the Cascadia or Japan Trench zones, while short-term forecasts remain impossible due to the unpredictable nature of fault slip. Traders are pricing this base rate against the absence of immediate precursors ahead of the June deadline.